Negelle Arsi travel to face Mekelakeya in the Premier League on Thursday 14 May (16:00 WAT). Mekelakeya are 2nd with 10 points from 5 games (in the top four), while Negelle Arsi sit 1st on 11 points (top of the table). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Mekelakeya's last 5: DWDWW Most recently they drew with Adama Kenema 0–0 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Negelle Arsi's last 5: WWDDD Most recently they beat Dire Dawa Kenema 3–0 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 0.9 for Mekelakeya and 0.9 for Negelle Arsi. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 73% likely.
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 51% chance at odds of 2.20, above our fair price of 1.98, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Mekelakeya 1–1 Negelle Arsi. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mekelakeya38%fair 2.66 · @2.40
Draw27%fair 3.69 · @2.62
Negelle Arsi35%fair 2.84 · @2.90
1.80Expected goals
0.92Mekelakeya xG
0.88Negelle Arsi xG
51%Both score
27%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–017%
1–015%
0–115%
1–113%
2–07%
0–26%
From our goals model: Mekelakeya 0.9 – 0.9 Negelle Arsi expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mekelakeya to win✓
38%
2.66
2.40
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.37
1.40
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.98
2.20 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
89%
1.12
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
53%
1.90
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
24%
4.09
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
6%
16.21
–
Form
Mekelakeya – last 6
DWDWWD
4 May
vs Adama Kenema
0–0
D
29 Apr
@ Mebrat Hayl
1–0
W
19 Apr
vs Awassa Kenema
0–0
D
15 Apr
@ Dire Dawa Kenema
2–1
W
10 Apr
@ Sidama Bunna
3–1
W
3 Apr
vs Suhul Shire
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Negelle Arsi – last 6
WWDDDD
11 May
vs Dire Dawa Kenema
3–0
W
6 May
@ Welwalo Adigrat Uni
2–1
W
30 Apr
vs Fasil Ketema
0–0
D
19 Apr
vs Hadiya Hosaena
1–1
D
13 Apr
@ Sheger Ketema
1–1
D
9 Apr
vs Ethiopian Medhin
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mekelakeya and Negelle Arsi.
What is the prediction for Mekelakeya vs Negelle Arsi?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.20.
Who will win Mekelakeya vs Negelle Arsi?
On our numbers Mekelakeya have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Negelle Arsi 35%.
How many goals will there be in Mekelakeya vs Negelle Arsi?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 27% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mekelakeya vs Negelle Arsi?
Our predicted score is Mekelakeya 1–1 Negelle Arsi, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Mekelakeya vs Negelle Arsi?
Mekelakeya vs Negelle Arsi (Premier League) kicks off on Thursday 14 May 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Suhul Shire1