Value bet: Dire Dawa Kenema to win @ 3.80 – our chance 28% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNegelle Arsi to win ✓47% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.40
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.50
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗77% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗19% · fair 5.23
Negelle Arsi vs Dire Dawa Kenema preview and prediction
The match
The Premier League sees Negelle Arsi take on Dire Dawa Kenema on Monday 11 May, kicking off at 14:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Negelle Arsi's last 5: WDDDD Most recently they beat Welwalo Adigrat Uni 2–1 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Dire Dawa Kenema's last 5: DDLLW Most recently they drew with Ethiopia Bunna 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Negelle Arsi arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.6 goals: 1.0 for Negelle Arsi and 0.7 for Dire Dawa Kenema. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 77% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Negelle Arsi 47%, draw 25%, Dire Dawa Kenema 28%.
Both teams to score: no (52%) at 1.50.
Value angle: Dire Dawa Kenema to win at 3.80 – 28% on our numbers against 26% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 52% chance at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: Negelle Arsi 0–0 Dire Dawa Kenema. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Negelle Arsi47%fair 2.14 · @2.05
Draw25%fair 3.97 · @2.62
Dire Dawa Kenema28%fair 3.57 · @3.80
1.64Expected goals
0.99Negelle Arsi xG
0.65Dire Dawa Kenema xG
48%Both score
23%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–019%
1–019%
0–113%
1–113%
2–09%
2–16%
From our goals model: Negelle Arsi 1.0 – 0.7 Dire Dawa Kenema expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Negelle Arsi to win✓
47%
2.14
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.40
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
52%
1.92
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✗
51%
1.95
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
77%
1.29
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
55%
1.82
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
27%
3.77
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
19%
5.23
–
Form
Negelle Arsi – last 6
WDDDDW
6 May
@ Welwalo Adigrat Uni
2–1
W
30 Apr
vs Fasil Ketema
0–0
D
19 Apr
vs Hadiya Hosaena
1–1
D
13 Apr
@ Sheger Ketema
1–1
D
9 Apr
vs Ethiopian Medhin
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ Adama Kenema
2–1
W
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Dire Dawa Kenema – last 6
DDLLWD
5 May
vs Ethiopia Bunna
0–0
D
29 Apr
@ Adama Kenema
1–1
D
19 Apr
@ Sidama Bunna
0–2
L
15 Apr
vs Mekelakeya
1–2
L
8 Apr
@ Suhul Shire
1–0
W
3 Apr
vs Fasil Ketema
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Negelle Arsi and Dire Dawa Kenema.
What is the prediction for Negelle Arsi vs Dire Dawa Kenema?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Negelle Arsi vs Dire Dawa Kenema?
On our numbers Negelle Arsi have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Dire Dawa Kenema 28%.
How many goals will there be in Negelle Arsi vs Dire Dawa Kenema?
We expect about 1.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 23% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Negelle Arsi vs Dire Dawa Kenema?
Our predicted score is Negelle Arsi 0–0 Dire Dawa Kenema, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.6 goals in total.
When is Negelle Arsi vs Dire Dawa Kenema?
Negelle Arsi vs Dire Dawa Kenema (Premier League) kicks off on Monday 11 May 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
