Value bet: Ethiopia Nigd Bank to win @ 3.00 – our chance 36% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultEthiopian Medhin to win ✓37% · @2.40
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.40
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.57
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗68% · fair 1.48
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.28
Ethiopian Medhin vs Ethiopia Nigd Bank preview and prediction
The match
The Premier League sees Ethiopian Medhin take on Ethiopia Nigd Bank on Monday 11 May, kicking off at 13:00 (WAT). Ethiopian Medhin are 6th with 7 points from 4 games (in the top half), while Ethiopia Nigd Bank sit 4th on 8 points (in the top four). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Ethiopian Medhin's last 5: WWWDD Most recently they beat Sidama Bunna 1–0 away. They average 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Ethiopia Nigd Bank's last 5: WDLWD Most recently they beat Kedus Giorgis 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.3 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.0 for Ethiopian Medhin and 1.0 for Ethiopia Nigd Bank. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Ethiopia Nigd Bank to win at 3.00 – 36% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 51% chance at odds of 1.57. Predicted score: Ethiopian Medhin 1–0 Ethiopia Nigd Bank. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ethiopian Medhin37%fair 2.69 · @2.40
Draw27%fair 3.67 · @2.62
Ethiopia Nigd Bank36%fair 2.81 · @3.00
2.00Expected goals
1.01Ethiopian Medhin xG
0.99Ethiopia Nigd Bank xG
49%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
0–014%
1–114%
0–113%
2–07%
2–17%
From our goals model: Ethiopian Medhin 1.0 – 1.0 Ethiopia Nigd Bank expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ethiopian Medhin to win✓
37%
2.69
2.40
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.37
1.40
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
51%
1.97
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
59%
1.68
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
2.00
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
22%
4.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.28
–
Form
Ethiopian Medhin – last 6
WWWDDD
6 May
@ Sidama Bunna
1–0
W
29 Apr
vs Awassa Kenema
2–1
W
24 Apr
@ Bench Maji Bunna
2–0
W
20 Apr
@ Mebrat Hayl
1–1
D
15 Apr
vs Bahardar
1–1
D
9 Apr
@ Negelle Arsi
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Ethiopia Nigd Bank – last 6
WDLWDW
5 May
vs Kedus Giorgis
2–0
W
30 Apr
@ Arba Minch Kenema
0–0
D
14 Apr
vs Sidama Bunna
0–1
L
8 Apr
vs Mekelle Kenema
3–0
W
4 Apr
@ Welayta Dicha
0–0
D
9 Mar
@ Dire Dawa Kenema
2–1
W
1.2Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ethiopian Medhin and Ethiopia Nigd Bank.
What is the prediction for Ethiopian Medhin vs Ethiopia Nigd Bank?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Ethiopian Medhin vs Ethiopia Nigd Bank?
On our numbers Ethiopian Medhin have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Ethiopia Nigd Bank 36%.
How many goals will there be in Ethiopian Medhin vs Ethiopia Nigd Bank?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ethiopian Medhin vs Ethiopia Nigd Bank?
Our predicted score is Ethiopian Medhin 1–0 Ethiopia Nigd Bank, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Ethiopian Medhin vs Ethiopia Nigd Bank?
Ethiopian Medhin vs Ethiopia Nigd Bank (Premier League) kicks off on Monday 11 May 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Dire Dawa Kenema0