Value bet: Fasil Ketema to win @ 3.00 – our chance 36% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultFasil Ketema to win36% · @3.00
Double chanceEither team to win71% · @1.50
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score59% · @1.44
GoalsUnder 1.5 goals62% · fair 1.61
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–118% · fair 5.63
Mebrat Hayl vs Fasil Ketema preview and prediction
The match
The Premier League sees Mebrat Hayl take on Fasil Ketema on Sunday 10 May, kicking off at 16:00 (WAT). Mebrat Hayl are 8th with 7 points from 5 games (in the top half), while Fasil Ketema sit 15th on 3 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Mebrat Hayl's last 5: LLDWL Most recently they lost to Suhul Shire 0–1 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Fasil Ketema's last 5: LDWWD Most recently they lost to Bahardar 0–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Fasil Ketema arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.3 goals: 0.7 for Mebrat Hayl and 0.7 for Fasil Ketema. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 85% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Fasil Ketema to win at 3.00 – 36% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 59% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Mebrat Hayl 0–0 Fasil Ketema. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mebrat Hayl35%fair 2.85 · @2.70
Draw29%fair 3.42 · @2.38
Fasil Ketema36%fair 2.80 · @3.00
1.32Expected goals
0.66Mebrat Hayl xG
0.66Fasil Ketema xG
41%Both score
15%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–027%
0–118%
1–017%
1–112%
0–26%
2–06%
From our goals model: Mebrat Hayl 0.7 – 0.7 Fasil Ketema expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fasil Ketema to win
36%
2.80
3.00 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
71%
1.41
1.50 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score
59%
1.68
1.44
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
85%
1.17
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
95%
1.05
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
61%
1.65
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw
33%
3.02
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1
18%
5.63
–
Form
Mebrat Hayl – last 6
LLDWLD
5 May
@ Suhul Shire
0–1
L
29 Apr
vs Mekelakeya
0–1
L
20 Apr
vs Ethiopian Medhin
1–1
D
14 Apr
@ Adama Kenema
1–0
W
8 Apr
@ Kedus Giorgis
1–2
L
3 Apr
vs Bahardar
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Fasil Ketema – last 6
LDWWDD
6 May
vs Bahardar
0–2
L
30 Apr
@ Negelle Arsi
0–0
D
14 Apr
@ Welayta Dicha
1–0
W
9 Apr
vs Awassa Kenema
1–0
W
3 Apr
@ Dire Dawa Kenema
0–0
D
13 Mar
vs Mekelakeya
0–0
D
0.3Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mebrat Hayl and Fasil Ketema.
What is the prediction for Mebrat Hayl vs Fasil Ketema?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Mebrat Hayl vs Fasil Ketema?
On our numbers Mebrat Hayl have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Fasil Ketema 36%.
How many goals will there be in Mebrat Hayl vs Fasil Ketema?
We expect about 1.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 15% likely and both teams score 41% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mebrat Hayl vs Fasil Ketema?
Our predicted score is Mebrat Hayl 0–0 Fasil Ketema, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.3 goals in total.
When is Mebrat Hayl vs Fasil Ketema?
Mebrat Hayl vs Fasil Ketema (Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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