Mekelle Kenema vs Arba Minch Kenema preview and prediction
The match
Arba Minch Kenema travel to face Mekelle Kenema in the Premier League on Tuesday 5 May (14:00 WAT).
Form guide
Mekelle Kenema's last 5: DWLDL Most recently they drew with Hadiya Hosaena 1–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Arba Minch Kenema's last 5: DDDLW Most recently they drew with Ethiopia Nigd Bank 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Arba Minch Kenema arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.1 for Mekelle Kenema and 0.9 for Arba Minch Kenema. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely.
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 51% chance at odds of 2.40, above our fair price of 1.95, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Mekelle Kenema 1–1 Arba Minch Kenema. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mekelle Kenema40%fair 2.50 · @2.50
Draw29%fair 3.42 · @2.50
Arba Minch Kenema31%fair 3.25 · @3.00
2.04Expected goals
1.10Mekelle Kenema xG
0.94Arba Minch Kenema xG
51%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–113%
0–013%
0–112%
2–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Mekelle Kenema 1.1 – 0.9 Arba Minch Kenema expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mekelle Kenema to win✗
40%
2.50
2.50
Double chance
Either team to win✓
71%
1.41
1.44
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.95
2.40 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.50
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
49%
2.03
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mekelle Kenema / FT Mekelle Kenema✗
22%
4.56
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.01
–
Form
Mekelle Kenema – last 6
DWLDLL
30 Apr
@ Hadiya Hosaena
1–1
D
13 Apr
vs Welwalo Adigrat Uni
2–1
W
8 Apr
@ Ethiopia Nigd Bank
0–3
L
15 Mar
vs Welayta Dicha
0–0
D
10 Mar
@ Awassa Kenema
0–1
L
5 Mar
vs Dire Dawa Kenema
1–2
L
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Arba Minch Kenema – last 6
DDDLWW
30 Apr
vs Ethiopia Nigd Bank
0–0
D
19 Apr
@ Ethiopia Bunna
1–1
D
13 Apr
vs Kedus Giorgis
2–2
D
9 Apr
vs Hadiya Hosaena
0–1
L
3 Apr
@ Sheger Ketema
2–1
W
10 Mar
@ Adama Kenema
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mekelle Kenema and Arba Minch Kenema.
What is the prediction for Mekelle Kenema vs Arba Minch Kenema?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.40.
Who will win Mekelle Kenema vs Arba Minch Kenema?
On our numbers Mekelle Kenema have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Arba Minch Kenema 31%.
How many goals will there be in Mekelle Kenema vs Arba Minch Kenema?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mekelle Kenema vs Arba Minch Kenema?
Our predicted score is Mekelle Kenema 1–1 Arba Minch Kenema, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Mekelle Kenema vs Arba Minch Kenema?
Mekelle Kenema vs Arba Minch Kenema (Premier League) kicks off on Tuesday 5 May 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Ethiopia Nigd Bank2
Kedus Giorgis0
Suhul Shire1
Mebrat Hayl0