Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
1
Value bet: Mekelakeya to win @ 2.30 – our chance 49% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMekelakeya to win ✗49% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓56% · fair 1.78
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓66% · @1.44
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.19
Mekelakeya vs Adama Kenema preview and prediction
The match
The Premier League sees Mekelakeya take on Adama Kenema on Monday 4 May, kicking off at 14:00 (WAT). Mekelakeya are 2nd with 10 points from 5 games (in the top four), while Adama Kenema sit 10th on 6 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Mekelakeya's last 5: WDWWD Most recently they beat Mebrat Hayl 1–0 away. They average 1.2 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Adama Kenema's last 5: DLLLL Most recently they drew with Dire Dawa Kenema 1–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Mekelakeya arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.2 for Mekelakeya and 0.8 for Adama Kenema. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mekelakeya 49%, draw 24%, Adama Kenema 27%.
Value angle: Mekelakeya to win at 2.30 – 49% on our numbers against 43% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 66% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Mekelakeya 1–0 Adama Kenema. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mekelakeya49%fair 2.05 · @2.30
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @2.75
Adama Kenema27%fair 3.70 · @3.10
2.02Expected goals
1.22Mekelakeya xG
0.80Adama Kenema xG
44%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
0–013%
1–113%
0–111%
2–010%
2–18%
From our goals model: Mekelakeya 1.2 – 0.8 Adama Kenema expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mekelakeya to win✗
49%
2.05
2.30 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.36
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
56%
1.78
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
60%
1.67
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
85%
1.17
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
49%
2.03
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mekelakeya / FT Mekelakeya✗
26%
3.77
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.19
–
Form
Mekelakeya – last 6
WDWWDD
29 Apr
@ Mebrat Hayl
1–0
W
19 Apr
vs Awassa Kenema
0–0
D
15 Apr
@ Dire Dawa Kenema
2–1
W
10 Apr
@ Sidama Bunna
3–1
W
3 Apr
vs Suhul Shire
1–1
D
13 Mar
@ Fasil Ketema
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Adama Kenema – last 6
DLLLLL
29 Apr
vs Dire Dawa Kenema
1–1
D
21 Apr
@ Kedus Giorgis
0–1
L
14 Apr
vs Mebrat Hayl
0–1
L
10 Apr
@ Bahardar
1–2
L
5 Apr
vs Negelle Arsi
1–2
L
10 Mar
vs Arba Minch Kenema
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mekelakeya and Adama Kenema.
What is the prediction for Mekelakeya vs Adama Kenema?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Mekelakeya vs Adama Kenema?
On our numbers Mekelakeya have a 49% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Adama Kenema 27%.
How many goals will there be in Mekelakeya vs Adama Kenema?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mekelakeya vs Adama Kenema?
Our predicted score is Mekelakeya 1–0 Adama Kenema, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Mekelakeya vs Adama Kenema?
Mekelakeya vs Adama Kenema (Premier League) kicks off on Monday 4 May 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
