Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · @1.50
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.79
Negelle Arsi vs Fasil Ketema preview and prediction
The match
The Premier League sees Negelle Arsi take on Fasil Ketema on Thursday 30 April, kicking off at 13:00 (WAT). Negelle Arsi are 1st with 11 points from 5 games (top of the table), while Fasil Ketema sit 15th on 3 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Negelle Arsi's last 5: DDDWL Most recently they drew with Hadiya Hosaena 1–1 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Fasil Ketema's last 5: WWDDD Most recently they beat Welayta Dicha 1–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.5 goals: 0.8 for Negelle Arsi and 0.7 for Fasil Ketema. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 81% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 53% chance at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: Negelle Arsi 0–0 Fasil Ketema. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Negelle Arsi37%fair 2.69 · @2.50
Draw29%fair 3.50 · @2.45
Fasil Ketema34%fair 2.92 · @3.00
1.50Expected goals
0.77Negelle Arsi xG
0.73Fasil Ketema xG
47%Both score
19%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–022%
1–017%
0–116%
1–113%
2–07%
0–26%
From our goals model: Negelle Arsi 0.8 – 0.7 Fasil Ketema expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Negelle Arsi to win✗
37%
2.69
2.50
Double chance
Either team to win✗
71%
1.40
1.44
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
53%
1.88
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✓
56%
1.79
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
93%
1.07
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
57%
1.74
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✓
29%
3.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.79
–
Form
Negelle Arsi – last 6
DDDWLD
19 Apr
vs Hadiya Hosaena
1–1
D
13 Apr
@ Sheger Ketema
1–1
D
9 Apr
vs Ethiopian Medhin
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ Adama Kenema
2–1
W
15 Mar
vs Mebrat Hayl
0–2
L
9 Mar
@ Bahardar
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Fasil Ketema – last 6
WWDDDL
14 Apr
@ Welayta Dicha
1–0
W
9 Apr
vs Awassa Kenema
1–0
W
3 Apr
@ Dire Dawa Kenema
0–0
D
13 Mar
vs Mekelakeya
0–0
D
9 Mar
@ Suhul Shire
1–1
D
4 Mar
@ Sidama Bunna
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Negelle Arsi and Fasil Ketema.
What is the prediction for Negelle Arsi vs Fasil Ketema?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Negelle Arsi vs Fasil Ketema?
On our numbers Negelle Arsi have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Fasil Ketema 34%.
How many goals will there be in Negelle Arsi vs Fasil Ketema?
We expect about 1.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 19% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Negelle Arsi vs Fasil Ketema?
Our predicted score is Negelle Arsi 0–0 Fasil Ketema, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.5 goals in total.
When is Negelle Arsi vs Fasil Ketema?
Negelle Arsi vs Fasil Ketema (Premier League) kicks off on Thursday 30 April 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Mekelle Kenema1
Arba Minch Kenema0