Value bet: Beroe to win @ 2.40 – our chance 47% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBeroe to win ✗47% · @2.40
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.37
Beroe vs Septemvri Sofia preview and prediction
The match
Beroe host Septemvri Sofia in the First League on Monday 18 May, with kick-off at 17:30 (WAT) at Stadion Beroe.
Form guide
Beroe's last 5: DDWWD Most recently they drew with Lokomotiv Sofia 1–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Septemvri Sofia's last 5: WDLDD Most recently they beat Spartak Varna 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.4 for Beroe and 1.1 for Septemvri Sofia. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Beroe 47%, draw 22%, Septemvri Sofia 32%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Beroe to win at 2.40 – 47% on our numbers against 42% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Beroe 1–1 Septemvri Sofia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Beroe47%fair 2.15 · @2.40
Draw22%fair 4.57 · @3.20
Septemvri Sofia32%fair 3.17 · @2.65
2.45Expected goals
1.38Beroe xG
1.07Septemvri Sofia xG
56%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–19%
2–19%
0–09%
2–08%
From our goals model: Beroe 1.4 – 1.1 Septemvri Sofia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Beroe to win✗
47%
2.15
2.40 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.78
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.44
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.81
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Beroe / FT Beroe✗
26%
3.88
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.37
–
Form
Beroe – last 6
DDWWDL
14 May
@ Lokomotiv Sofia
1–1
D
5 May
vs Montana
2–2
D
2 May
vs Slavia Sofia
3–0
W
24 Apr
@ Spartak Varna
2–1
W
13 Apr
vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0–0
D
9 Apr
@ Lokomotiv Sofia
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Septemvri Sofia – last 6
WDLDDD
14 May
vs Spartak Varna
1–0
W
10 May
@ Botev Vratsa
1–1
D
6 May
@ Slavia Sofia
1–2
L
1 May
vs Montana
1–1
D
27 Apr
@ Lokomotiv Sofia
1–1
D
16 Apr
vs Spartak Varna
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Beroe and Septemvri Sofia.
What is the prediction for Beroe vs Septemvri Sofia?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Beroe vs Septemvri Sofia?
On our numbers Beroe have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Septemvri Sofia 32%.
How many goals will there be in Beroe vs Septemvri Sofia?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Beroe vs Septemvri Sofia?
Our predicted score is Beroe 1–1 Septemvri Sofia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Beroe vs Septemvri Sofia?
Beroe vs Septemvri Sofia (First League) kicks off on Monday 18 May 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Beroe.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Dobrudzha1
Montana0