Value bet: Lokomotiv Sofia to win @ 1.80 – our chance 60% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLokomotiv Sofia to win ✗60% · @1.80
Double chanceLokomotiv Sofia or draw ✓80% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.18
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia preview and prediction
The match
Septemvri Sofia travel to Stadion Lokomotiv in the First League on Monday 27 April (18:00 WAT) to face Lokomotiv Sofia. Lokomotiv Sofia are 14th with 9 points from 14 games (in the bottom three), while Septemvri Sofia sit 12th on 11 points (in the bottom three). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Lokomotiv Sofia's last 5: LWLWD Most recently they lost to Botev Vratsa 2–3 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Septemvri Sofia's last 5: DWDLL Most recently they drew with Spartak Varna 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 17 March 2026, finished Lokomotiv Sofia 3–0 Septemvri Sofia.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.8 for Lokomotiv Sofia and 0.9 for Septemvri Sofia. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lokomotiv Sofia 60%, draw 20%, Septemvri Sofia 20%.
Safer route: Lokomotiv Sofia or draw (80%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Lokomotiv Sofia to win at 1.80 – 60% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Lokomotiv Sofia 2–0 Septemvri Sofia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lokomotiv Sofia60%fair 1.67 · @1.80
Draw20%fair 4.95 · @3.35
Septemvri Sofia20%fair 5.06 · @4.00
2.69Expected goals
1.79Lokomotiv Sofia xG
0.89Septemvri Sofia xG
56%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
2–011%
1–111%
2–110%
0–07%
3–07%
From our goals model: Lokomotiv Sofia 1.8 – 0.9 Septemvri Sofia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Lokomotiv Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Lokomotiv Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia?
On our numbers Lokomotiv Sofia have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Septemvri Sofia 20%.
How many goals will there be in Lokomotiv Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lokomotiv Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia?
Our predicted score is Lokomotiv Sofia 2–0 Septemvri Sofia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Lokomotiv Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia?
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia (First League) kicks off on Monday 27 April 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Lokomotiv.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Montana1
Dobrudzha0