Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv prediction & analysis
80%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Cherno More Varna to win @ 1.91 – our chance 65% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCherno More Varna to win ✓65% · @1.91
Double chanceCherno More Varna or draw ✓87% · @1.18
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗19% · fair 5.36
Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv preview and prediction
The match
Lokomotiv Plovdiv travel to Ticha Stadium in the First League on Tuesday 12 May (15:45 WAT) to face Cherno More Varna. Cherno More Varna are 9th with 13 points from 14 games (in the bottom half), while Lokomotiv Plovdiv sit 11th on 12 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Cherno More Varna's last 5: DWLDL Most recently they drew with Arda Kardzhali 0–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv's last 5: WWDLW Most recently they beat Arda Kardzhali 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.3 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 26 April 2026, finished Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0–1 Cherno More Varna. Across their last 2 meetings Cherno More Varna have won 1, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0, with 1 draw and 1.5 goals per game; both teams scored in 1 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.6 for Cherno More Varna and 0.5 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 60% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Safer route: Cherno More Varna or draw (87%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: no (50%) at 1.73.
Value angle: Cherno More Varna to win at 1.91 – 65% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 80% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Cherno More Varna 1–0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cherno More Varna65%fair 1.55 · @1.91
Draw23%fair 4.43 · @3.20
Lokomotiv Plovdiv13%fair 7.75 · @3.75
2.16Expected goals
1.62Cherno More Varna xG
0.54Lokomotiv Plovdiv xG
50%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–019%
2–015%
0–012%
1–110%
2–18%
3–08%
From our goals model: Cherno More Varna 1.6 – 0.5 Lokomotiv Plovdiv expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
On our numbers Cherno More Varna have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Lokomotiv Plovdiv 13%.
How many goals will there be in Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
Our predicted score is Cherno More Varna 1–0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv (First League) kicks off on Tuesday 12 May 2026 at 15:45 (West Africa Time) at Ticha Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
