Value bet: Arda Kardzhali to win @ 3.40 – our chance 33% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultBotev Plovdiv to win ✗45% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.75
Botev Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali preview and prediction
The match
Arda Kardzhali travel to Stadion Hristo Botev in the First League on Tuesday 12 May (18:15 WAT) to face Botev Plovdiv. Botev Plovdiv are 5th with 23 points from 14 games (in the top half), while Arda Kardzhali sit 6th on 21 points (in the top half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Botev Plovdiv's last 5: LWDWD Most recently they lost to Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0–2 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Arda Kardzhali's last 5: LDDLW Most recently they lost to Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Botev Plovdiv arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.3 for Botev Plovdiv and 1.1 for Arda Kardzhali. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 57%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Arda Kardzhali to win at 3.40 – 33% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Botev Plovdiv 1–1 Arda Kardzhali. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Botev Plovdiv45%fair 2.24 · @2.05
Draw22%fair 4.49 · @3.10
Arda Kardzhali33%fair 3.02 · @3.40
2.39Expected goals
1.31Botev Plovdiv xG
1.07Arda Kardzhali xG
57%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–09%
2–19%
2–08%
From our goals model: Botev Plovdiv 1.3 – 1.1 Arda Kardzhali expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Botev Plovdiv to win✗
45%
2.24
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.75
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.82
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Botev Plovdiv / FT Botev Plovdiv✗
24%
4.10
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.75
–
Form
Botev Plovdiv – last 6
LWDWDW
3 May
vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0–2
L
14 Apr
@ Dobrudzha
3–0
W
8 Apr
vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1–1
D
20 Mar
@ Slavia Sofia
1–0
W
8 Mar
@ CSKA 1948
0–0
D
3 Mar
vs Septemvri Sofia
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Arda Kardzhali – last 6
LDDLWL
8 May
@ Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0–2
L
3 May
vs Cherno More Varna
0–0
D
30 Apr
@ Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1–1
D
22 Apr
vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0–4
L
15 Apr
vs Ludogorets
1–0
W
9 Apr
@ Levski Sofia
0–1
L
0.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Botev Plovdiv and Arda Kardzhali.
What is the prediction for Botev Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Botev Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali?
On our numbers Botev Plovdiv have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Arda Kardzhali 33%.
How many goals will there be in Botev Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Botev Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali?
Our predicted score is Botev Plovdiv 1–1 Arda Kardzhali, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Botev Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali?
Botev Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali (First League) kicks off on Tuesday 12 May 2026 at 18:15 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Hristo Botev.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
