Value bet: Al Nasr to win @ 1.80 – our chance 64% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAl Nasr to win ✗64% · @1.80
Double chanceAl Nasr or draw ✓87% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.93
Al Nasr vs Smail preview and prediction
The match
Al Nasr host Smail in the Professional League on Monday 18 May, with kick-off at 16:20 (WAT). Al Nasr are 3rd with 12 points from 6 games (in the top four), while Smail sit 11th on 6 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Al Nasr's last 5: WLLDW Most recently they beat Bahla 3–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Smail's last 5: WLLWL Most recently they beat Sohar 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 2.5 conceded.
Al Nasr arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.8 for Al Nasr and 0.7 for Smail. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Al Nasr 64%, draw 23%, Smail 13%.
Safer route: Al Nasr or draw (87%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Al Nasr to win at 1.80 – 64% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Al Nasr 1–0 Smail. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Al Nasr64%fair 1.57 · @1.80
Draw23%fair 4.28 · @3.35
Smail13%fair 7.82 · @4.10
2.45Expected goals
1.79Al Nasr xG
0.67Smail xG
55%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
0–09%
3–08%
From our goals model: Al Nasr 1.8 – 0.7 Smail expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Al Nasr to win✗
64%
1.57
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Al Nasr or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.81
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.85
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.28
Half-time result
Al Nasr ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Al Nasr / FT Al Nasr✗
41%
2.47
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.93
–
Form
Al Nasr – last 6
WLLDWW
13 May
@ Bahla
3–1
W
4 May
vs Al-Nahda
0–1
L
27 Apr
vs Sohar
0–1
L
16 Apr
@ Oman Club
0–0
D
10 Apr
vs Al-Khabourah
2–0
W
16 Mar
vs Al-Shabab
2–1
W
1.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Smail – last 6
WLLWLL
14 May
vs Sohar
2–1
W
5 May
@ Oman Club
1–2
L
30 Apr
vs Al-Nahda
0–1
L
17 Apr
@ Ibri
3–2
W
10 Apr
vs Al-Shabab
0–7
L
5 Apr
@ Al Seeb
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Al Nasr and Smail.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Al Nasr vs Smail?
On our numbers Al Nasr have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Smail 13%.
How many goals will there be in Al Nasr vs Smail?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Al Nasr vs Smail?
Our predicted score is Al Nasr 1–0 Smail, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Al Nasr vs Smail?
Al Nasr vs Smail (Professional League) kicks off on Monday 18 May 2026 at 16:20 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Al-Khabourah3
Al-Rustaq3