Penarol vs Defensor Sporting prediction & analysis
80%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Penarol to win @ 1.71 – our chance 63% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPenarol to win ✗63% · @1.71
Double chancePenarol or draw ✓87% · @1.12
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · @1.65
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.46
Penarol vs Defensor Sporting preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División Apertura sees Penarol take on Defensor Sporting on Monday 4 May, kicking off at 23:30 (WAT) at Estadio Campeón del Siglo. Penarol are 5th with 22 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Defensor Sporting sit 13th on 12 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Penarol's last 5: LDLLD Most recently they lost to Corinthians 0–2 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Defensor Sporting's last 5: WLDDW Most recently they beat Progreso 1–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Defensor Sporting arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.6 for Penarol and 0.6 for Defensor Sporting. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 60% likely.
Value angle: Penarol to win at 1.71 – 63% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 80% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Penarol 1–0 Defensor Sporting. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Penarol63%fair 1.60 · @1.71
Draw25%fair 4.05 · @3.35
Defensor Sporting13%fair 7.83 · @4.85
2.17Expected goals
1.60Penarol xG
0.57Defensor Sporting xG
50%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–018%
2–015%
0–011%
1–110%
2–18%
3–08%
From our goals model: Penarol 1.6 – 0.6 Defensor Sporting expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Penarol to win✗
63%
1.60
1.71 ▲
Double chance
Penarol or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.12
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
50%
1.99
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.53
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penarol / FT Penarol✗
39%
2.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
18%
5.46
–
Form
Penarol – last 6
LDLLDL
1 May
@ Corinthians
0–2
L
21 Apr
vs Juventud
2–2
D
17 Apr
vs Platense
1–2
L
14 Apr
vs Liverpool Montevideo
0–2
L
10 Apr
@ Santa Fe
1–1
D
29 Mar
vs Racing Montevideo
1–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Defensor Sporting – last 6
WLDDWD
27 Apr
vs Progreso
1–0
W
5 Apr
@ Cerro
0–1
L
31 Mar
vs Albion FC
1–1
D
26 Mar
@ Danubio
0–0
D
21 Mar
vs Club Nacional
2–1
W
9 Mar
vs Central Espanol
0–0
D
0.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Penarol and Defensor Sporting.
What is the prediction for Penarol vs Defensor Sporting?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Penarol vs Defensor Sporting?
On our numbers Penarol have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Defensor Sporting 13%.
How many goals will there be in Penarol vs Defensor Sporting?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Penarol vs Defensor Sporting?
Our predicted score is Penarol 1–0 Defensor Sporting, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Penarol vs Defensor Sporting?
Penarol vs Defensor Sporting (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Monday 4 May 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Campeón del Siglo.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
