Defensor Sporting vs Progreso prediction & analysis
62%
Footrivo pick
Defensor Sporting to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.61 · bookmaker 1.88 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.88Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultDefensor Sporting to win ✓62% · @1.88
Double chanceDefensor Sporting or draw ✓87% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · @1.65
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓19% · fair 5.39
Defensor Sporting vs Progreso preview and prediction
The match
Progreso travel to Estadio Luis Franzini in the Primera División Apertura on Monday 27 April (23:30 WAT) to face Defensor Sporting. Defensor Sporting are 13th with 12 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Progreso sit 7th on 19 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Defensor Sporting's last 5: LDDWD Most recently they lost to Cerro 0–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Progreso's last 3: DDL Most recently they drew with Liverpool Montevideo 3–3 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.6 for Defensor Sporting and 0.6 for Progreso. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 62% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Safer route: Defensor Sporting or draw (87%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: no (53%) at 1.65.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Defensor Sporting to win – a 62% chance at odds of 1.88, above our fair price of 1.61, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Defensor Sporting 1–0 Progreso. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Defensor Sporting62%fair 1.61 · @1.88
Draw25%fair 3.97 · @3.20
Progreso13%fair 7.78 · @4.10
2.14Expected goals
1.57Defensor Sporting xG
0.56Progreso xG
47%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–019%
2–015%
0–012%
1–110%
2–18%
3–08%
From our goals model: Defensor Sporting 1.6 – 0.6 Progreso expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Defensor Sporting to win✓
62%
1.61
1.88 ▲
Double chance
Defensor Sporting or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.17
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
53%
1.87
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
64%
1.57
1.44
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
1.18
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Defensor Sporting / FT Defensor Sporting✗
38%
2.62
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
19%
5.39
–
Form
Defensor Sporting – last 6
LDDWDL
5 Apr
@ Cerro
0–1
L
31 Mar
vs Albion FC
1–1
D
26 Mar
@ Danubio
0–0
D
21 Mar
vs Club Nacional
2–1
W
9 Mar
vs Central Espanol
0–0
D
3 Mar
@ Atletico Torque
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Progreso – last 3
DDL
31 Mar
vs Liverpool Montevideo
3–3
D
26 Mar
@ Racing Montevideo
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Club Nacional
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Defensor Sporting and Progreso.
What is the prediction for Defensor Sporting vs Progreso?
Our pick is Defensor Sporting to win with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.88.
Who will win Defensor Sporting vs Progreso?
On our numbers Defensor Sporting have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Progreso 13%.
How many goals will there be in Defensor Sporting vs Progreso?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Defensor Sporting vs Progreso?
Our predicted score is Defensor Sporting 1–0 Progreso, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Defensor Sporting vs Progreso?
Defensor Sporting vs Progreso (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Monday 27 April 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Luis Franzini.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
