Value bet: Aston Villa to win @ 2.78 – our chance 42% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAston Villa to win ✗42% · @2.78
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 9.62
Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa preview and prediction
The match
The UEFA Europa League sees Nottingham Forest take on Aston Villa on Thursday 30 April, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at City Ground.
Form guide
Nottingham Forest's last 5: WWDWD Most recently they beat Burnley 4–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Aston Villa's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Sunderland 4–3 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Aston Villa arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.2 for Nottingham Forest and 1.4 for Aston Villa. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Nottingham Forest 34%, draw 24%, Aston Villa 42%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Aston Villa to win at 2.78 – 42% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Nottingham Forest 1–1 Aston Villa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Nottingham Forest34%fair 2.92 · @2.50
Draw24%fair 4.13 · @3.20
Aston Villa42%fair 2.41 · @2.78
2.57Expected goals
1.21Nottingham Forest xG
1.36Aston Villa xG
57%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–110%
1–09%
1–29%
0–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Nottingham Forest 1.2 – 1.4 Aston Villa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Aston Villa to win✗
42%
2.41
2.78 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.77
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
72%
1.39
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.90
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Aston Villa / FT Aston Villa✗
23%
4.26
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
9.62
–
Form
Nottingham Forest – last 6
WWDWDL
19 Apr
vs Burnley
4–1
W
16 Apr
vs FC Porto
1–0
W
9 Apr
@ FC Porto
1–1
D
22 Mar
@ Tottenham
3–0
W
15 Mar
vs Fulham
0–0
D
12 Mar
vs FC Midtjylland
0–1
L
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Aston Villa – last 6
WWWWWL
19 Apr
vs Sunderland
4–3
W
16 Apr
vs Bologna
4–0
W
9 Apr
@ Bologna
3–1
W
22 Mar
vs West Ham
2–0
W
19 Mar
vs Lille
2–0
W
15 Mar
@ Manchester United
1–3
L
2.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa.
What is the prediction for Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa?
On our numbers Nottingham Forest have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Aston Villa 42%.
How many goals will there be in Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa?
Our predicted score is Nottingham Forest 1–1 Aston Villa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa?
Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa (UEFA Europa League) kicks off on Thursday 30 April 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at City Ground.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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