San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC preview and prediction
The match
The US Open Cup sees San Jose Earthquakes take on Minnesota United FC on Wednesday 29 April, kicking off at 03:00 (WAT) at PayPal Park.
Form guide
San Jose Earthquakes's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat St. Louis City 3–2 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 3.3 per game.
Minnesota United FC's last 5: WWWWL Most recently they beat FC Dallas 1–0 away. On the road they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 5. They average 1.7 scored and 1.2 conceded.
San Jose Earthquakes arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 2.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.6 for San Jose Earthquakes and 0.8 for Minnesota United FC. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 57%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: San Jose Earthquakes 59%, draw 18%, Minnesota United FC 23%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.48.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 68% chance at odds of 1.62, above our fair price of 1.47, so there is value in it. Predicted score: San Jose Earthquakes 1–0 Minnesota United FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
San Jose Earthquakes59%fair 1.69 · @1.69
Draw18%fair 5.55 · @4.00
Minnesota United FC23%fair 4.36 · @4.00
2.36Expected goals
1.56San Jose Earthquakes xG
0.80Minnesota United FC xG
57%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
1–112%
2–011%
0–09%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: San Jose Earthquakes 1.6 – 0.8 Minnesota United FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
San Jose Earthquakes to win✓
59%
1.69
1.69
Double chance
Either team to win✓
82%
1.22
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
1.48
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.15
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.91
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
68%
1.47
1.62 ▲
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT San Jose Earthquakes / FT San Jose Earthquakes✓
34%
2.98
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.80
–
Form
San Jose Earthquakes – last 6
WWWWWW
26 Apr
@ St. Louis City
3–2
W
23 Apr
vs Austin
5–1
W
20 Apr
@ Los Angeles FC
4–1
W
16 Apr
vs Phoenix Rising
2–0
W
12 Apr
@ Sporting Kansas City
3–1
W
5 Apr
vs San Diego
3–0
W
3.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Minnesota United FC – last 6
WWWWLD
23 Apr
@ FC Dallas
1–0
W
19 Apr
vs Portland Timbers
2–0
W
12 Apr
@ San Diego
2–1
W
5 Apr
@ Los Angeles Galaxy
2–1
W
8 Mar
@ Nashville SC
1–3
L
22 Feb
@ Austin
2–2
D
1.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between San Jose Earthquakes and Minnesota United FC.
What is the prediction for San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC?
On our numbers San Jose Earthquakes have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Minnesota United FC 23%.
How many goals will there be in San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC?
Our predicted score is San Jose Earthquakes 1–0 Minnesota United FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC?
San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC (US Open Cup) kicks off on Wednesday 29 April 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at PayPal Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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