Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 55% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultItaly to win ✓62% · @1.54
Double chanceItaly or draw ✓85% · @1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓13% · fair 7.42
Luxembourg vs Italy preview and prediction
The match
Luxembourg host Italy in the Friendlies on Wednesday 3 June, with kick-off at 19:45 (WAT) at Stade de Luxembourg.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 0.8 for Luxembourg and 1.8 for Italy. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Luxembourg 15%, draw 23%, Italy 62%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.00 – 55% on our numbers against 50% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Luxembourg 0–1 Italy. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Luxembourg15%fair 6.66 · @6.20
Draw23%fair 4.37 · @3.85
Italy62%fair 1.61 · @1.54
2.61Expected goals
0.78Luxembourg xG
1.83Italy xG
55%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–113%
0–212%
1–110%
1–210%
0–38%
0–07%
From our goals model: Luxembourg 0.8 – 1.8 Italy expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Italy to win✓
62%
1.61
1.54
Double chance
Italy or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.83
2.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
73%
1.37
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.94
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.30
Half-time result
Italy ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Italy / FT Italy✗
39%
2.54
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
13%
7.42
–
Form
Luxembourg – last 2
WW
31 Mar
vs Malta
3–0
W
26 Mar
@ Malta
2–0
W
2.5Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Italy – last 1
W
26 Mar
vs Northern Ireland
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Luxembourg and Italy.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Luxembourg vs Italy?
On our numbers Luxembourg have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Italy 62%.
How many goals will there be in Luxembourg vs Italy?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Luxembourg vs Italy?
Our predicted score is Luxembourg 0–1 Italy, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Luxembourg vs Italy?
Luxembourg vs Italy (Friendlies) kicks off on Wednesday 3 June 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stade de Luxembourg.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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Northern Ireland U210