Good pick · fair odds 1.69 · bookmaker 1.62 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.62Odds
2
Value bet: Erbil to win @ 3.60 – our chance 31% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAl Quwa Al Jawiya to win ✗47% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗56% · fair 1.78
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.50
Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Erbil preview and prediction
The match
Al Quwa Al Jawiya host Erbil in the Iraqi League on Thursday 23 April, with kick-off at 17:30 (WAT). Al Quwa Al Jawiya are 14th with 13 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Erbil sit 7th on 20 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Al Quwa Al Jawiya's last 5: WDDWW Most recently they beat Al-Qasim 5–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Erbil's last 5: WDDDD Most recently they beat Naft 2–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Al Quwa Al Jawiya arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.3 for Al Quwa Al Jawiya and 1.0 for Erbil. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 44%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Al Quwa Al Jawiya 47%, draw 23%, Erbil 31%.
Value angle: Erbil to win at 3.60 – 31% on our numbers against 28% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 59% chance at odds of 1.62. Predicted score: Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1–0 Erbil. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Al Quwa Al Jawiya47%fair 2.13 · @2.00
Draw23%fair 4.43 · @3.00
Erbil31%fair 3.27 · @3.60
2.28Expected goals
1.31Al Quwa Al Jawiya xG
0.98Erbil xG
44%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
1–113%
0–010%
0–110%
2–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1.3 – 1.0 Erbil expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Al Quwa Al Jawiya to win✗
47%
2.13
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.29
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
56%
1.78
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.69
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Al Quwa Al Jawiya / FT Al Quwa Al Jawiya✗
26%
3.90
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.50
–
Form
Al Quwa Al Jawiya – last 6
WDDWWW
9 Apr
vs Al-Qasim
5–0
W
5 Apr
vs Naft
0–0
D
31 Mar
@ Al Shorta
3–3
D
26 Mar
vs Al Karkh
1–0
W
17 Mar
vs Baghdad
3–1
W
13 Mar
@ Diyala
1–0
W
2.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Erbil – last 6
WDDDDW
14 Apr
@ Naft
2–0
W
9 Apr
vs Mosul
2–2
D
5 Apr
@ Gharraf
0–0
D
31 Mar
vs Al Zawra'a
1–1
D
27 Mar
@ Naft Maysan
0–0
D
23 Mar
vs Diyala
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Al Quwa Al Jawiya and Erbil.
What is the prediction for Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Erbil?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Erbil?
On our numbers Al Quwa Al Jawiya have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Erbil 31%.
How many goals will there be in Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Erbil?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Erbil?
Our predicted score is Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1–0 Erbil, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Erbil?
Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Erbil (Iraqi League) kicks off on Thursday 23 April 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
