Good pick · fair odds 1.68 · bookmaker 1.62 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.62Odds
2
Value bet: Gharraf to win @ 3.10 – our chance 38% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultGharraf to win ✗38% · @3.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗55% · fair 1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.44
Duhok vs Gharraf preview and prediction
The match
Duhok host Gharraf in the Iraqi League on Thursday 23 April, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Duhok Stadium. Duhok are 8th with 18 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Gharraf sit 13th on 14 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Duhok's last 5: LLDLL Most recently they lost to Al-Karma 0–3 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Gharraf's last 5: WLDWL Most recently they beat Al-Qasim 5–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Gharraf arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 20 February 2026, finished Gharraf 4–3 Duhok.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.1 for Duhok and 1.1 for Gharraf. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 45%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Duhok 37%, draw 25%, Gharraf 38%.
Value angle: Gharraf to win at 3.10 – 38% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 59% chance at odds of 1.62. Predicted score: Duhok 1–1 Gharraf. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Duhok37%fair 2.67 · @2.20
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @3.00
Gharraf38%fair 2.64 · @3.10
2.26Expected goals
1.12Duhok xG
1.13Gharraf xG
45%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–012%
0–010%
1–28%
2–17%
From our goals model: Duhok 1.1 – 1.1 Gharraf expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Duhok vs Gharraf?
On our numbers Duhok have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Gharraf 38%.
How many goals will there be in Duhok vs Gharraf?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Duhok vs Gharraf?
Our predicted score is Duhok 1–1 Gharraf, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Duhok vs Gharraf?
Duhok vs Gharraf (Iraqi League) kicks off on Thursday 23 April 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Duhok Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
