Portugal vs Nigeria prediction & analysis
Portugal to win
Strong pick · fair odds 1.40 · bookmaker 1.29 · Won ✓
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.93 – our chance 55% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Portugal 2.2 – 0.7 Nigeria expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Portugal are clear favourites at home with a 71% chance of winning, against 11% for Nigeria.
Portugal have taken 7 points from their last 3 matches (2W 1D 0L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 0.3 per game. Nigeria have 8 points from their last 4 (2W 2D 0L), averaging 2.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
We expect around 2.9 goals (2.2 for Portugal, 0.7 for Nigeria). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 57%, both teams to score at 55%. Most likely scores: 2–0 (13%), 1–0 (12%), 3–0 (10%).
Our pick is Portugal to win at a 71% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.29 is close to our fair price of 1.40. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 1.93 is our value angle (55% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Portugal to win ✓ | 71% | 1.40 | 1.29 |
| Double chance | Portugal or draw ✓ | 89% | 1.12 | 1.05 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 55% | 1.82 | 1.93 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 79% | 1.27 | 1.18 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 57% | 1.75 | 1.57 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 64% | 1.56 | 1.55 |
| Half-time result | Portugal ahead at half-time ✗ | 51% | 1.96 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Portugal / FT Portugal ✗ | 47% | 2.13 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 ✗ | 13% | 7.49 | – |
Form
Portugal – last 3
| 6 Jun | vs Chile | 2–1 | W |
| 1 Apr | @ USA | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Mar | @ Mexico | 0–0 | D |
Nigeria – last 4
| 3 Jun | @ Poland | 2–2 | D |
| 26 May | vs Zimbabwe | 2–0 | W |
| 31 Mar | @ Jordan | 2–2 | D |
| 27 Mar | @ Iran | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Portugal and Nigeria.
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Costa Rica0Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Portugal vs Nigeria?
Our pick is Portugal to win with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.29.
Who will win Portugal vs Nigeria?
On our numbers Portugal have a 71% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Nigeria 11%.
How many goals will there be in Portugal vs Nigeria?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
When is Portugal vs Nigeria?
Portugal vs Nigeria (Friendlies) kicks off on Wednesday 10 June 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.