Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.86 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.86Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultUral to win ✗65% · @1.86
Double chanceUral or draw ✗86% · @1.19
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.69
Ural vs Shinnik Yaroslavl preview and prediction
The match
The First League sees Ural take on Shinnik Yaroslavl on Monday 4 May, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT) at Yekaterinburg Arena. Ural are 2nd with 34 points from 17 games (in the top four), while Shinnik Yaroslavl sit 7th on 26 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Ural's last 5: WWWDW Most recently they beat Chelyabinsk 2–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Shinnik Yaroslavl's last 5: DWDDW Most recently they drew with Fakel 2–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Ural arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.7 for Ural and 0.6 for Shinnik Yaroslavl. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 49%.
Our pre-match pick was Ural to win – a 65% chance at odds of 1.86, above our fair price of 1.53, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Ural 1–0 Shinnik Yaroslavl. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ural65%fair 1.53 · @1.86
Draw20%fair 4.88 · @3.34
Shinnik Yaroslavl14%fair 7.11 · @4.15
2.25Expected goals
1.67Ural xG
0.58Shinnik Yaroslavl xG
49%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–018%
2–015%
0–011%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Ural 1.7 – 0.6 Shinnik Yaroslavl expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ural to win✗
65%
1.53
1.86 ▲
Double chance
Ural or draw✗
86%
1.16
1.19
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.95
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
66%
1.51
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.69
1.64
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.19
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ural / FT Ural✗
40%
2.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
18%
5.69
–
Form
Ural – last 6
WWWDWL
26 Apr
@ Chelyabinsk
2–1
W
22 Apr
vs Torpedo Moskva
2–0
W
18 Apr
@ FK Sokol Saratov
3–0
W
12 Apr
vs FC UFA
0–0
D
5 Apr
vs Chayka
5–0
W
29 Mar
@ Rodina Moskva
1–3
L
2.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Shinnik Yaroslavl – last 6
DWDDWL
22 Apr
@ Fakel
2–2
D
12 Apr
@ Volga Ulyanovsk
1–0
W
22 Mar
@ Spartak Kostroma
1–1
D
15 Mar
vs Enisey
1–1
D
9 Mar
vs FC UFA
1–0
W
2 Mar
@ Rodina Moskva
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ural and Shinnik Yaroslavl.
What is the prediction for Ural vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
Our pick is Ural to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.86.
Who will win Ural vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
On our numbers Ural have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Shinnik Yaroslavl 14%.
How many goals will there be in Ural vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ural vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
Our predicted score is Ural 1–0 Shinnik Yaroslavl, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Ural vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
Ural vs Shinnik Yaroslavl (First League) kicks off on Monday 4 May 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Yekaterinburg Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
