San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra prediction & analysis
63%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 1.70 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.70Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.40 – our chance 52% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +25%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSan Lorenzo to win ✗44% · @2.34
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @2.40
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · @1.09
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.47
San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra preview and prediction
The match
San Lorenzo host Deportivo Riestra in the Copa Argentina on Friday 17 July, with kick-off at 22:45 (WAT) at Estadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano.
Form guide
San Lorenzo's last 5: LDDDW Most recently they lost to Deportivo Recoleta 0–1 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Deportivo Riestra's last 5: DLLWL Most recently they drew with Palestino 1–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
San Lorenzo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.7.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 25 March 2026, finished Deportivo Riestra 1–1 San Lorenzo.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.4 for San Lorenzo and 1.1 for Deportivo Riestra. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 37%, both teams to score at 52%.
Betting angles
Win chances: San Lorenzo 44%, draw 25%, Deportivo Riestra 31%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 2.40.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.40 – 52% on our numbers against 42% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 63% chance at odds of 1.70, above our fair price of 1.60, so there is value in it. Predicted score: San Lorenzo 1–1 Deportivo Riestra. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
San Lorenzo44%fair 2.26 · @2.34
Draw25%fair 4.00 · @2.82
Deportivo Riestra31%fair 3.25 · @3.45
2.45Expected goals
1.36San Lorenzo xG
1.08Deportivo Riestra xG
52%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–19%
2–19%
0–09%
2–08%
From our goals model: San Lorenzo 1.4 – 1.1 Deportivo Riestra expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra?
On our numbers San Lorenzo have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Deportivo Riestra 31%.
How many goals will there be in San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra?
Our predicted score is San Lorenzo 1–1 Deportivo Riestra, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra?
San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra (Copa Argentina) kicks off on Friday 17 July 2026 at 22:45 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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