Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.55
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗74% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗16% · fair 6.19
Penarol vs Juventud preview and prediction
The match
Penarol host Juventud in the Primera División Apertura on Tuesday 21 April, with kick-off at 00:30 (WAT) at Estadio Campeón del Siglo. Penarol are 5th with 22 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Juventud sit 8th on 18 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Penarol's last 5: LLDLW Most recently they lost to Platense 1–2 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Juventud's last 5: LDLLL Most recently they lost to Atletico-MG 1–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Penarol arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 2.0 for Penarol and 0.5 for Juventud. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 49%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Penarol 71%, draw 22%, Juventud 7%.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.55.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Penarol 2–0 Juventud. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Penarol71%fair 1.40 · @1.34
Draw22%fair 4.56 · @4.20
Juventud7%fair 14.77 · @9.50
2.53Expected goals
2.01Penarol xG
0.52Juventud xG
49%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–016%
1–016%
3–011%
2–18%
1–18%
0–08%
From our goals model: Penarol 2.0 – 0.5 Juventud expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Penarol to win✗
71%
1.40
1.34
Double chance
Penarol or draw✓
93%
1.07
1.03
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
51%
1.96
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.90
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
74%
1.36
1.30
Half-time result
Penarol ahead at half-time✗
51%
1.96
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penarol / FT Penarol✗
48%
2.10
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
16%
6.19
–
Form
Penarol – last 6
LLDLWW
17 Apr
vs Platense
1–2
L
14 Apr
vs Liverpool Montevideo
0–2
L
10 Apr
@ Santa Fe
1–1
D
29 Mar
vs Racing Montevideo
1–2
L
26 Mar
@ Boston River
2–0
W
21 Mar
vs Cerro
3–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Juventud – last 6
LDLLLL
16 Apr
@ Atletico-MG
1–2
L
9 Apr
vs Cienciano
1–1
D
29 Mar
vs Boston River
1–2
L
25 Mar
@ Cerro
0–1
L
22 Mar
vs Albion FC
0–1
L
16 Mar
@ Danubio
1–4
L
0.7Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Penarol and Juventud.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Penarol vs Juventud?
On our numbers Penarol have a 71% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Juventud 7%.
How many goals will there be in Penarol vs Juventud?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Penarol vs Juventud?
Our predicted score is Penarol 2–0 Juventud, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Penarol vs Juventud?
Penarol vs Juventud (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Campeón del Siglo.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
