Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Naft to win @ 1.91 – our chance 63% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultNaft to win ✓63% · @1.91
Double chanceNaft or draw ✓82% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓62% · fair 1.61
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓19% · fair 5.28
Naft vs Gharraf preview and prediction
The match
Gharraf travel to face Naft in the Iraqi League on Thursday 9 April (17:30 WAT). Naft are 3rd with 25 points from 13 games (in the top four), while Gharraf sit 13th on 14 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Naft's last 5: DDWWD Most recently they drew with Al Quwa Al Jawiya 0–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Gharraf's last 5: DWLLL Most recently they drew with Erbil 0–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Naft arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.5 for Naft and 0.6 for Gharraf. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Betting angles
Win chances: Naft 63%, draw 20%, Gharraf 18%.
Safer route: Naft or draw (82%) at 1.22.
Value angle: Naft to win at 1.91 – 63% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Naft or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Naft 1–0 Gharraf. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Naft63%fair 1.60 · @1.91
Draw20%fair 5.01 · @3.20
Gharraf18%fair 5.70 · @3.60
2.06Expected goals
1.48Naft xG
0.58Gharraf xG
38%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–019%
2–014%
0–013%
1–111%
2–18%
0–17%
From our goals model: Naft 1.5 – 0.6 Gharraf expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Naft to win✓
63%
1.60
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Naft or draw✓
82%
1.21
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
64%
1.55
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Naft / FT Naft✗
36%
2.79
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
19%
5.28
–
Form
Naft – last 6
DDWWDL
5 Apr
@ Al Quwa Al Jawiya
0–0
D
30 Mar
@ Al Talaba
0–0
D
25 Mar
@ Al-Qasim
2–0
W
17 Mar
@ Al Kahrabaa
2–1
W
13 Mar
vs Al Najaf
1–1
D
6 Mar
vs Al Karkh
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Gharraf – last 6
DWLLLL
5 Apr
vs Erbil
0–0
D
31 Mar
vs Al Najaf
1–0
W
25 Mar
@ Newroz
1–2
L
17 Mar
vs Al Zawra'a
0–1
L
12 Mar
@ Al-Karma
0–3
L
6 Mar
vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Naft and Gharraf.
Our pick is Naft or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Naft vs Gharraf?
On our numbers Naft have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Gharraf 18%.
How many goals will there be in Naft vs Gharraf?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 38% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Naft vs Gharraf?
Our predicted score is Naft 1–0 Gharraf, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Naft vs Gharraf?
Naft vs Gharraf (Iraqi League) kicks off on Thursday 9 April 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
