Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.80 – our chance 53% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +48%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFrance to win ✓80% · @1.09
Double chanceFrance or draw ✓94% · @1.01
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.80
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓73% · @1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–1 ✗8% · fair 12.42
France vs Iraq preview and prediction
The match
France host Iraq in the World Cup on Monday 22 June, with kick-off at 22:00 (WAT) at Lincoln Financial Field.
Form guide
France's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat Senegal 3–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.4 per game.
Iraq's last 5: LLDWW Most recently they lost to Norway 1–4 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.6 conceded.
France arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.4 points a game against 1.4.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.0 goals: 3.1 for France and 0.8 for Iraq. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 73% likely and both teams score in 53% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: France 80%, draw 14%, Iraq 6%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 2.80.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.80 – 53% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: France 3–0 Iraq. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
France80%fair 1.25 · @1.09
Draw14%fair 7.08 · @8.75
Iraq6%fair 17.48 · @25.00
3.96Expected goals
3.15France xG
0.81Iraq xG
53%Both score
73%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
3–010%
2–09%
3–18%
4–08%
2–18%
4–16%
From our goals model: France 3.1 – 0.8 Iraq expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
France to win✓
80%
1.25
1.09
Double chance
France or draw✓
94%
1.06
1.01
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
2.80 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
1.10
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
1.36
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
52%
1.91
1.93
Half-time result
France ahead at half-time✓
63%
1.58
–
Half-time / full-time
HT France / FT France✓
60%
1.67
–
Correct score
Correct score 3–1✗
8%
12.42
–
Form
France – last 5
WWLWW
16 Jun
vs Senegal
3–1
W
8 Jun
vs Northern Ireland
3–1
W
4 Jun
vs Ivory Coast
1–2
L
29 Mar
@ Colombia
3–1
W
26 Mar
@ Brazil
2–1
W
2.4Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Iraq – last 5
LLDWW
16 Jun
vs Norway
1–4
L
10 Jun
vs Venezuela
0–2
L
4 Jun
@ Spain
1–1
D
29 May
vs Andorra
1–0
W
1 Apr
vs Bolivia
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
1.6Conceded / game
60%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between France and Iraq.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win France vs Iraq?
On our numbers France have a 80% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Iraq 6%.
How many goals will there be in France vs Iraq?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 73% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for France vs Iraq?
Our predicted score is France 3–0 Iraq, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.
When is France vs Iraq?
France vs Iraq (World Cup) kicks off on Monday 22 June 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time) at Lincoln Financial Field.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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