Netherlands vs Sweden prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.70 – our chance 65% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Netherlands 2.6 – 1.4 Sweden expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Netherlands are clear favourites at home with a 61% chance of winning, against 18% for Sweden.
Netherlands have taken 8 points from their last 5 matches (2W 2D 1L), scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.2 per game. Sweden have 10 points from their last 5 (3W 1D 1L), averaging 2.8 scored and 1.8 conceded.
We expect around 3.9 goals (2.6 for Netherlands, 1.4 for Sweden). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 2–1 (9%), 3–1 (7%), 1–1 (7%).
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 84% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is better than our fair price of 1.19, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Over 2.5 goals at 1.70 is our value angle (65% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Netherlands to win ✓ | 61% | 1.64 | 1.71 |
| Double chance | Netherlands or draw ✓ | 82% | 1.22 | 1.18 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 63% | 1.59 | 1.65 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 84% | 1.19 | 1.22 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 65% | 1.53 | 1.70 ▲ |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 55% | 1.82 | 1.44 |
| Half-time result | Netherlands ahead at half-time ✓ | 48% | 2.09 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Netherlands / FT Netherlands ✓ | 41% | 2.42 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 9% | 11.40 | – |
Form
Netherlands – last 5
| 14 Jun | vs Japan | 2–2 | D |
| 8 Jun | vs Uzbekistan | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Jun | vs Algeria | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Mar | vs Ecuador | 1–1 | D |
| 27 Mar | vs Norway | 2–1 | W |
Sweden – last 5
| 15 Jun | vs Tunisia | 5–1 | W |
| 4 Jun | vs Greece | 2–2 | D |
| 1 Jun | @ Norway | 1–3 | L |
| 31 Mar | vs Poland | 3–2 | W |
| 26 Mar | @ Ukraine | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Netherlands and Sweden.
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Ivory Coast1Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Netherlands vs Sweden?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Netherlands vs Sweden?
On our numbers Netherlands have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Sweden 18%.
How many goals will there be in Netherlands vs Sweden?
We expect about 3.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
When is Netherlands vs Sweden?
Netherlands vs Sweden (World Cup) kicks off on Saturday 20 June 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at NRG Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.