Value bet: Independiente Petrolero to win @ 1.95 – our chance 58% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultIndependiente Petrolero to win ✓58% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✓82% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓68% · @1.30
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓69% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 10.66
Independiente Petrolero vs Universitario de Vinto preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División sees Independiente Petrolero take on Universitario de Vinto on Saturday 25 April, kicking off at 01:00 (WAT). Independiente Petrolero are 11th with 30 points from 25 games (in the bottom half), while Universitario de Vinto sit 14th on 22 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Independiente Petrolero's last 4: WLDL Most recently they beat Bolívar 2–1 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.6 goals: 2.2 for Independiente Petrolero and 1.3 for Universitario de Vinto. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 69% and both teams to score at 68%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Independiente Petrolero 58%, draw 18%, Universitario de Vinto 24%.
Both teams to score: yes (68%) at 1.30.
Value angle: Independiente Petrolero to win at 1.95 – 58% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 69% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Independiente Petrolero 2–1 Universitario de Vinto. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Independiente Petrolero58%fair 1.73 · @1.95
Draw18%fair 5.41 · @4.00
Universitario de Vinto24%fair 4.24 · @2.90
3.56Expected goals
2.21Independiente Petrolero xG
1.35Universitario de Vinto xG
68%Both score
69%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
1–18%
2–07%
3–17%
2–26%
1–06%
From our goals model: Independiente Petrolero 2.2 – 1.3 Universitario de Vinto expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente Petrolero to win✓
58%
1.73
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
82%
1.23
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
68%
1.47
1.30
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
1.33
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
51%
1.95
1.85
Half-time result
Independiente Petrolero ahead at half-time✓
43%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente Petrolero / FT Independiente Petrolero✓
37%
2.74
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
9%
10.66
–
Form
Independiente Petrolero – last 4
WLDL
22 Apr
@ Bolívar
2–1
W
15 Apr
@ Caracas FC
0–1
L
11 Apr
@ Guabirá
2–2
D
7 Apr
vs Racing Club
1–3
L
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Universitario de Vinto – last 1
W
21 Apr
vs ABB
5–2
W
5.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Independiente Petrolero and Universitario de Vinto.
What is the prediction for Independiente Petrolero vs Universitario de Vinto?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Independiente Petrolero vs Universitario de Vinto?
On our numbers Independiente Petrolero have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Universitario de Vinto 24%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente Petrolero vs Universitario de Vinto?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 68% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente Petrolero vs Universitario de Vinto?
Our predicted score is Independiente Petrolero 2–1 Universitario de Vinto, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Independiente Petrolero vs Universitario de Vinto?
Independiente Petrolero vs Universitario de Vinto (Primera División) kicks off on Saturday 25 April 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
