Value bet: Pouso Alegre to win @ 3.50 – our chance 33% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMadureira to win ✓43% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓11% · fair 8.97
Madureira vs Pouso Alegre preview and prediction
The match
Madureira host Pouso Alegre in the Serie D on Saturday 6 June, with kick-off at 19:00 (WAT) at Estadio Conselheiro Galvao.
Form guide
Madureira's last 5: LDLLW Most recently they lost to Água Santa 1–4 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.4 for Madureira and 1.1 for Pouso Alegre. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 55%.
Value angle: Pouso Alegre to win at 3.50 – 33% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 55% chance at odds of 2.00, above our fair price of 1.83, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Madureira 1–1 Pouso Alegre. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Madureira43%fair 2.30 · @2.00
Draw23%fair 4.28 · @2.90
Pouso Alegre33%fair 3.02 · @3.50
2.50Expected goals
1.36Madureira xG
1.14Pouso Alegre xG
55%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
2–08%
From our goals model: Madureira 1.4 – 1.1 Pouso Alegre expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Madureira to win✓
43%
2.30
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.83
2.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Madureira / FT Madureira✗
24%
4.11
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
11%
8.97
–
Form
Madureira – last 6
LDLLWL
30 May
@ Água Santa
1–4
L
18 Apr
@ Portuguesa RJ
0–0
D
12 Mar
vs Águia de Marabá
0–1
L
3 Mar
vs Flamengo
0–8
L
25 Feb
vs ABC
1–0
W
23 Feb
@ Flamengo
0–3
L
0.3Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Pouso Alegre – last 2
LW
30 May
vs Portuguesa
1–2
L
14 Feb
@ Uberlandia
2–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Madureira and Pouso Alegre.
What is the prediction for Madureira vs Pouso Alegre?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.00.
Who will win Madureira vs Pouso Alegre?
On our numbers Madureira have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Pouso Alegre 33%.
How many goals will there be in Madureira vs Pouso Alegre?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Madureira vs Pouso Alegre?
Our predicted score is Madureira 1–1 Pouso Alegre, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Madureira vs Pouso Alegre?
Madureira vs Pouso Alegre (Serie D) kicks off on Saturday 6 June 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Conselheiro Galvao.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Serie D · Brazil · Estadio Conselheiro Galvao
América RJ1
Água Santa0
Portuguesa2
Portuguesa RJ0
Decisão1
Treze1
Imperatriz4
Tuna Luso0
Tocantinópolis7
Oratório1
Trem2
Águia de Marabá0