Value bet: AEK Larnaca to win @ 2.90 – our chance 39% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAEK Larnaca to win ✗39% · @2.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 9.12
Apollon Limassol vs AEK Larnaca preview and prediction
The match
AEK Larnaca travel to Alphamega Stadium in the 1. Division on Sunday 5 April (17:00 WAT) to face Apollon Limassol. Apollon Limassol are 5th with 16 points from 9 games (in the top half), while AEK Larnaca sit 1st on 20 points (top of the table).
Form guide
Apollon Limassol's last 5: DDWDW Most recently they drew with Pafos 1–1 away. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded.
AEK Larnaca's last 5: DWDWD Most recently they drew with Crystal Palace 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.2 for Apollon Limassol and 1.2 for AEK Larnaca. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 57%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: AEK Larnaca to win at 2.90 – 39% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Apollon Limassol 1–1 AEK Larnaca. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Apollon Limassol36%fair 2.78 · @2.35
Draw25%fair 3.96 · @3.00
AEK Larnaca39%fair 2.58 · @2.90
2.43Expected goals
1.18Apollon Limassol xG
1.24AEK Larnaca xG
57%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
0–09%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: Apollon Limassol 1.2 – 1.2 AEK Larnaca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AEK Larnaca to win✗
39%
2.58
2.90 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.34
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.77
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AEK Larnaca / FT AEK Larnaca✗
22%
4.64
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
9.12
–
Form
Apollon Limassol – last 5
DDWDW
22 Mar
@ Pafos
1–1
D
15 Mar
@ Anorthosis
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs AEL
2–1
W
2 Mar
@ Omonia Nicosia
1–1
D
21 Feb
vs Ethnikos Achna
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
80%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
AEK Larnaca – last 6
DWDWDL
19 Mar
vs Crystal Palace
1–1
D
16 Mar
@ Ethnikos Achna
2–0
W
12 Mar
@ Crystal Palace
0–0
D
6 Mar
vs Akritas
3–0
W
1 Mar
vs Olympiakos
1–1
D
22 Feb
@ Omonia Aradippou
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Apollon Limassol and AEK Larnaca.
What is the prediction for Apollon Limassol vs AEK Larnaca?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Apollon Limassol vs AEK Larnaca?
On our numbers Apollon Limassol have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 25% and AEK Larnaca 39%.
How many goals will there be in Apollon Limassol vs AEK Larnaca?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Apollon Limassol vs AEK Larnaca?
Our predicted score is Apollon Limassol 1–1 AEK Larnaca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Apollon Limassol vs AEK Larnaca?
Apollon Limassol vs AEK Larnaca (1. Division) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Alphamega Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Ethnikos Achna1