Somalia vs Mauritius prediction & analysis
Somalia or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
Value bet: Draw @ 3.00 – our chance 56% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +69%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Somalia 1.2 – 1.0 Mauritius expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Somalia hold the edge on home soil with a 27% chance of winning, against 17% for Mauritius, and a draw (56%) is a real possibility.
We expect around 2.1 goals (1.2 for Somalia, 1.0 for Mauritius). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (14%), 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (12%).
Our pick is Somalia or draw at a 83% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.30 is better than our fair price of 1.21, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Draw at 3.00 is our value angle (56% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Draw ✓ | 56% | 1.78 | 3.00 ▲ |
| Double chance | Somalia or draw ✓ | 83% | 1.21 | 1.30 ▲ |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 51% | 1.96 | 2.10 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 62% | 1.60 | 1.50 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 64% | 1.56 | 1.45 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 83% | 1.21 | 1.14 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 48% | 2.07 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Somalia / FT Somalia ✗ | 23% | 4.42 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–1 ✗ | 13% | 7.47 | – |
Form
Somalia
No recent results on record.
Mauritius
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Somalia and Mauritius.
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What is the prediction for Somalia vs Mauritius?
Our pick is Somalia or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Somalia vs Mauritius?
On our numbers Somalia have a 27% chance of winning, the draw 56% and Mauritius 17%.
How many goals will there be in Somalia vs Mauritius?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
When is Somalia vs Mauritius?
Somalia vs Mauritius (Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification) kicks off on Friday 27 March 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Lalgy Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.