Sao Tome and Principe vs Ethiopia prediction & analysis
Ethiopia or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
Value bet: Ethiopia to win @ 1.94 – our chance 61% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Sao Tome and Principe 0.6 – 1.4 Ethiopia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Ethiopia travel as clear favourites – 61% to win, against 17% for Sao Tome and Principe.
We expect around 2.0 goals (0.6 for Sao Tome and Principe, 1.4 for Ethiopia). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely. Most likely scores: 0–1 (19%), 0–2 (14%), 0–0 (14%).
Our pick is Ethiopia or draw at a 83% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is close to our fair price of 1.20. For a bigger price, Ethiopia to win at 1.94 is our value angle (61% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Ethiopia to win ✓ | 61% | 1.63 | 1.94 ▲ |
| Double chance | Ethiopia or draw ✓ | 83% | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 55% | 1.81 | 1.48 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 59% | 1.71 | 1.62 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 68% | 1.48 | 1.38 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 85% | 1.18 | 1.11 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 48% | 2.08 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Ethiopia / FT Ethiopia ✓ | 35% | 2.83 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 19% | 5.14 | – |
Form
Sao Tome and Principe
No recent results on record.
Ethiopia
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sao Tome and Principe and Ethiopia.
Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Congo DR | 6 | +4 | 12 |
| 2 |  Tanzania | 6 | +1 | 10 |
| 3 |  Guinea | 6 | +4 | 9 |
| 4 |  Ethiopia | 6 | -9 | 4 |
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Burundi4Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Sao Tome and Principe vs Ethiopia?
Our pick is Ethiopia or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Sao Tome and Principe vs Ethiopia?
On our numbers Sao Tome and Principe have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Ethiopia 61%.
How many goals will there be in Sao Tome and Principe vs Ethiopia?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
When is Sao Tome and Principe vs Ethiopia?
Sao Tome and Principe vs Ethiopia (Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification) kicks off on Friday 27 March 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.