Burundi vs Chad prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.31 · bookmaker 1.35 · Won ✓
Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.10 – our chance 54% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Burundi 2.1 – 1.1 Chad expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Burundi are clear favourites at home with a 61% chance of winning, against 17% for Chad.
Burundi have taken 3 points from their last 1 matches (1W 0D 0L), scoring 4.0 and conceding 0.0 per game. Chad have 0 points from their last 1 (0W 0D 1L), averaging 0.0 scored and 4.0 conceded. Burundi come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.2 goals (2.1 for Burundi, 1.1 for Chad). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 2–1 (10%), 1–1 (9%), 2–0 (9%).
In their last 1 meeting, Burundi have won 1, Chad have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 4.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 76% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.35 is better than our fair price of 1.31, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Over 2.5 goals at 2.10 is our value angle (54% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Burundi to win ✓ | 61% | 1.65 | 1.71 |
| Double chance | Burundi or draw ✓ | 83% | 1.21 | 1.14 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 56% | 1.77 | 1.95 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 76% | 1.31 | 1.35 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 54% | 1.86 | 2.10 ▲ |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 67% | 1.48 | 1.25 |
| Half-time result | Burundi ahead at half-time ✓ | 46% | 2.19 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Burundi / FT Burundi ✓ | 40% | 2.51 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 10% | 10.13 | – |
Form
Burundi – last 1
| 27 Mar | @ Chad | 4–0 | W |
Chad – last 1
| 27 Mar | vs Burundi | 0–4 | L |
Head to head
| 27 Mar 2026 | Chad v Burundi | 0–4 |
Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Zambia | 6 | +3 | 13 |
| 2 |  Ivory Coast | 6 | +9 | 12 |
| 3 |  Sierra Leone | 6 | -5 | 5 |
| 4 |  Chad | 6 | -7 | 3 |
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What is the prediction for Burundi vs Chad?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Burundi vs Chad?
On our numbers Burundi have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Chad 17%.
How many goals will there be in Burundi vs Chad?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
When is Burundi vs Chad?
Burundi vs Chad (Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification) kicks off on Tuesday 31 March 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Intwari Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.