Ethiopia vs Sao Tome and Principe prediction & analysis
Ethiopia to win
Strong pick · fair odds 1.46 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Ethiopia 2.0 – 0.7 Sao Tome and Principe expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Ethiopia are clear favourites at home with a 69% chance of winning, against 14% for Sao Tome and Principe.
Ethiopia have taken 3 points from their last 1 matches (1W 0D 0L), scoring 3.0 and conceding 0.0 per game. Sao Tome and Principe have 0 points from their last 1 (0W 0D 1L), averaging 0.0 scored and 3.0 conceded. Ethiopia come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.7 goals (2.0 for Ethiopia, 0.7 for Sao Tome and Principe). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 50%. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 2–0 (13%), 1–0 (13%), 2–1 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, Ethiopia have won 1, Sao Tome and Principe have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Ethiopia to win at a 69% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.50 is better than our fair price of 1.46, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Ethiopia to win ✓ | 69% | 1.46 | 1.50 |
| Double chance | Ethiopia or draw ✓ | 86% | 1.16 | 1.09 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 50% | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 72% | 1.38 | 1.36 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 52% | 1.93 | 1.70 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 73% | 1.36 | 1.22 |
| Half-time result | Ethiopia ahead at half-time ✓ | 48% | 2.09 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Ethiopia / FT Ethiopia ✓ | 44% | 2.30 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 ✗ | 13% | 7.64 | – |
Form
Ethiopia – last 1
| 27 Mar | @ Sao Tome and Principe | 3–0 | W |
Sao Tome and Principe – last 1
| 27 Mar | vs Ethiopia | 0–3 | L |
Head to head
| 27 Mar 2026 | Sao Tome and Principe v Ethiopia | 0–3 |
Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Congo DR | 6 | +4 | 12 |
| 2 |  Tanzania | 6 | +1 | 10 |
| 3 |  Guinea | 6 | +4 | 9 |
| 4 |  Ethiopia | 6 | -9 | 4 |
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What is the prediction for Ethiopia vs Sao Tome and Principe?
Our pick is Ethiopia to win with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Ethiopia vs Sao Tome and Principe?
On our numbers Ethiopia have a 69% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Sao Tome and Principe 14%.
How many goals will there be in Ethiopia vs Sao Tome and Principe?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
When is Ethiopia vs Sao Tome and Principe?
Ethiopia vs Sao Tome and Principe (Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification) kicks off on Tuesday 31 March 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Dire Dawa Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.