Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Porto Vitória to win @ 1.91 – our chance 56% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultPorto Vitória to win ✓56% · @1.91
Double chancePorto Vitória or draw ✓82% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗82% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗19% · fair 5.30
Cuiaba vs Porto Vitória preview and prediction
The match
Cuiaba host Porto Vitória in the on Thursday 16 April, with kick-off at 00:00 (WAT) at Arena Pantanal.
Form guide
Cuiaba's last 5: LDLDD Most recently they lost to Atletico Goianiense 0–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.0 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Porto Vitória's last 4: LWLL Most recently they lost to Anápolis 0–2 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 0.6 for Cuiaba and 1.4 for Porto Vitória. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Cuiaba 18%, draw 27%, Porto Vitória 56%.
Safer route: Porto Vitória or draw (82%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: no (50%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Porto Vitória to win at 1.91 – 56% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Porto Vitória or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.21, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Cuiaba 0–1 Porto Vitória. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cuiaba18%fair 5.65 · @3.80
Draw27%fair 3.77 · @3.10
Porto Vitória56%fair 1.79 · @1.91
1.97Expected goals
0.62Cuiaba xG
1.36Porto Vitória xG
50%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–119%
0–014%
0–213%
1–112%
1–09%
1–28%
From our goals model: Cuiaba 0.6 – 1.4 Porto Vitória expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Porto Vitória to win✓
56%
1.79
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Porto Vitória or draw✓
82%
1.21
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
50%
1.98
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.44
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
64%
1.55
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
82%
1.21
1.18
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
49%
2.04
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Porto Vitória / FT Porto Vitória✗
32%
3.08
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
19%
5.30
–
Form
Cuiaba – last 5
LDLDD
8 Apr
@ Atletico Goianiense
0–1
L
31 Mar
@ Fortaleza EC
0–0
D
28 Mar
@ Gama
0–1
L
26 Mar
vs Tocantinópolis
0–0
D
22 Mar
vs Sport Recife
0–0
D
0.0Scored / game
0.4Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Porto Vitória – last 4
LWLL
8 Apr
@ Anápolis
0–2
L
29 Mar
vs Atletico Goianiense
3–2
W
25 Mar
vs Gama
0–1
L
4 Mar
@ Avai
0–3
L
0.8Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
25%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cuiaba and Porto Vitória.
What is the prediction for Cuiaba vs Porto Vitória?
Our pick is Porto Vitória or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Cuiaba vs Porto Vitória?
On our numbers Cuiaba have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Porto Vitória 56%.
How many goals will there be in Cuiaba vs Porto Vitória?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cuiaba vs Porto Vitória?
Our predicted score is Cuiaba 0–1 Porto Vitória, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Cuiaba vs Porto Vitória?
Cuiaba vs Porto Vitória () kicks off on Thursday 16 April 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena Pantanal.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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