Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.93 – our chance 56% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultVila Nova to win ✗58% · @1.80
Double chanceVila Nova or draw ✓82% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.93
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗73% · @1.38
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.07
Vila Nova vs Capital Brasilia preview and prediction
The match
Capital Brasilia travel to face Vila Nova in the on Thursday 16 April (01:30 WAT).
Form guide
Vila Nova's last 5: DWDWL Most recently they drew with Primavera MG 2–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
Capital Brasilia's last 4: DLWL Most recently they drew with Araguaína 0–0 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Vila Nova arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.9 for Vila Nova and 1.0 for Capital Brasilia. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Vila Nova 58%, draw 24%, Capital Brasilia 18%.
Safer route: Vila Nova or draw (82%) at 1.15.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.93.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.93 – 56% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.38. Predicted score: Vila Nova 1–1 Capital Brasilia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Vila Nova58%fair 1.72 · @1.80
Draw24%fair 4.23 · @3.25
Capital Brasilia18%fair 5.51 · @4.20
2.87Expected goals
1.90Vila Nova xG
0.97Capital Brasilia xG
56%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–011%
1–110%
2–010%
2–110%
3–06%
3–16%
From our goals model: Vila Nova 1.9 – 1.0 Capital Brasilia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Vila Nova to win✗
58%
1.72
1.80
Double chance
Vila Nova or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.78
1.93 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
73%
1.37
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.96
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.22
Half-time result
Vila Nova ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Vila Nova / FT Vila Nova✗
37%
2.69
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.07
–
Form
Vila Nova – last 6
DWDWLD
8 Apr
@ Primavera MG
2–2
D
5 Apr
vs Atletico Goianiense
2–1
W
1 Apr
@ Sport Recife
1–1
D
29 Mar
vs Operario Ferroviario
6–0
W
22 Feb
@ Atletico Goianiense
0–2
L
16 Feb
vs Anápolis
2–2
D
2.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Capital Brasilia – last 4
DLWL
8 Apr
@ Araguaína
0–0
D
29 Mar
vs Rio Branco ES
0–2
L
25 Mar
vs Primavera MG
4–3
W
12 Mar
@ Operario-PR
0–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vila Nova and Capital Brasilia.
What is the prediction for Vila Nova vs Capital Brasilia?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win Vila Nova vs Capital Brasilia?
On our numbers Vila Nova have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Capital Brasilia 18%.
How many goals will there be in Vila Nova vs Capital Brasilia?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vila Nova vs Capital Brasilia?
Our predicted score is Vila Nova 1–1 Capital Brasilia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Vila Nova vs Capital Brasilia?
Vila Nova vs Capital Brasilia () kicks off on Thursday 16 April 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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