Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.45 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.45Odds
1
Value bet: Novorizontino to win @ 1.91 – our chance 58% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNovorizontino to win ✗58% · @1.91
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · @1.65
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.84
Novorizontino vs Avai preview and prediction
The match
Avai travel to Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi in the on Thursday 30 April (01:15 WAT) to face Novorizontino.
Form guide
Novorizontino's last 5: LWDWD Most recently they lost to Sport Recife 0–1 away. They average 1.0 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Avai's last 5: LWLDW Most recently they lost to Ponte Preta 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Novorizontino arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.6 for Novorizontino and 0.8 for Avai. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 50%.
Value angle: Novorizontino to win at 1.91 – 58% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 66% chance at odds of 1.45. Predicted score: Novorizontino 1–1 Avai. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Novorizontino58%fair 1.73 · @1.91
Draw21%fair 4.75 · @3.10
Avai21%fair 4.71 · @3.90
2.38Expected goals
1.57Novorizontino xG
0.80Avai xG
50%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
1–112%
2–011%
0–09%
2–19%
0–17%
From our goals model: Novorizontino 1.6 – 0.8 Avai expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Novorizontino to win✗
58%
1.73
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
50%
1.99
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.69
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.17
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Novorizontino / FT Novorizontino✗
34%
2.96
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.84
–
Form
Novorizontino – last 6
LWDWDW
26 Apr
@ Sport Recife
0–1
L
20 Apr
vs Athletic Club
2–1
W
15 Apr
@ Operario-PR
1–1
D
10 Apr
vs São Bernardo
1–0
W
31 Mar
@ Juventude
0–0
D
29 Mar
@ Juventude
2–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Avai – last 6
LWLDWL
19 Apr
vs Ponte Preta
1–2
L
16 Apr
vs Caxias
1–0
W
8 Apr
@ Chapecoense-sc
1–2
L
5 Apr
vs Operario-PR
0–0
D
2 Apr
@ CRB
1–0
W
26 Mar
@ Tombense
2–3
L
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Novorizontino and Avai.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Novorizontino vs Avai?
On our numbers Novorizontino have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Avai 21%.
How many goals will there be in Novorizontino vs Avai?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Novorizontino vs Avai?
Our predicted score is Novorizontino 1–1 Avai, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Novorizontino vs Avai?
Novorizontino vs Avai () kicks off on Thursday 30 April 2026 at 01:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Tombense2
São Bernardo2