Value bet: Tombense to win @ 2.88 – our chance 38% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultTombense to win ✗38% · @2.88
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.91
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.01
Tombense vs São Bernardo preview and prediction
The match
São Bernardo travel to Estadio Antonio Guimaraes de Almeida in the on Thursday 30 April (23:00 WAT) to face Tombense.
Form guide
Tombense's last 5: LDWLL Most recently they lost to Volta Redonda 2–3 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 2.3 conceded.
São Bernardo's last 5: LLWLD Most recently they lost to Cianorte 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 1.6 for Tombense and 1.6 for São Bernardo. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 63% and both teams to score at 56%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Tombense 38%, draw 24%, São Bernardo 38%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.91.
Value angle: Tombense to win at 2.88 – 38% on our numbers against 35% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 56% chance at odds of 1.91, above our fair price of 1.77, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Tombense 1–1 São Bernardo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Tombense38%fair 2.63 · @2.88
Draw24%fair 4.16 · @3.10
São Bernardo38%fair 2.64 · @2.20
3.25Expected goals
1.63Tombense xG
1.62São Bernardo xG
56%Both score
63%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
2–18%
1–28%
2–27%
1–06%
0–16%
From our goals model: Tombense 1.6 – 1.6 São Bernardo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tombense to win✗
38%
2.63
2.88 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.77
1.91 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
84%
1.20
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
59%
1.69
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
38%
2.64
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tombense / FT Tombense✗
23%
4.38
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.01
–
Form
Tombense – last 6
LDWLLL
16 Apr
@ Volta Redonda
2–3
L
9 Apr
vs America Mineiro
3–3
D
26 Mar
vs Avai
3–2
W
12 Mar
@ Confiança
0–2
L
1 Mar
@ Uniao Trabalhadores
1–3
L
20 Feb
vs Uniao Trabalhadores
0–1
L
1.5Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
São Bernardo – last 6
LLWLDL
15 Apr
vs Cianorte
0–1
L
10 Apr
@ Novorizontino
0–1
L
6 Apr
@ Botafogo SP
2–1
W
2 Apr
vs Operario-PR
1–2
L
30 Mar
vs Sampaio Corrêa RJ
2–2
D
26 Mar
@ Chapecoense-sc
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tombense and São Bernardo.
What is the prediction for Tombense vs São Bernardo?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win Tombense vs São Bernardo?
On our numbers Tombense have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 24% and São Bernardo 38%.
How many goals will there be in Tombense vs São Bernardo?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tombense vs São Bernardo?
Our predicted score is Tombense 1–1 São Bernardo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Tombense vs São Bernardo?
Tombense vs São Bernardo () kicks off on Thursday 30 April 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Antonio Guimaraes de Almeida.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Novorizontino1
Avai2