Penarol vs Liverpool Montevideo prediction & analysis
67%
Footrivo pick
Penarol to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.65 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.65Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultPenarol to win ✗67% · @1.65
Double chancePenarol or draw ✗88% · @1.10
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.57
Penarol vs Liverpool Montevideo preview and prediction
The match
Penarol host Liverpool Montevideo in the Primera División Apertura on Tuesday 14 April, with kick-off at 00:00 (WAT) at Estadio Campeón del Siglo. Penarol are 5th with 22 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Liverpool Montevideo sit 1st on 30 points (top of the table).
Form guide
Penarol's last 5: DLWWW Most recently they drew with Santa Fe 1–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Liverpool Montevideo's last 5: DDDWW Most recently they drew with Progreso 3–3 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.9 for Penarol and 0.6 for Liverpool Montevideo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 50%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Penarol 67%, draw 21%, Liverpool Montevideo 12%.
Both teams to score: no (50%) at 1.70.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Penarol to win – a 67% chance at odds of 1.65, above our fair price of 1.49, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Penarol 1–0 Liverpool Montevideo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Penarol67%fair 1.49 · @1.65
Draw21%fair 4.84 · @3.45
Liverpool Montevideo12%fair 8.13 · @5.20
2.51Expected goals
1.87Penarol xG
0.64Liverpool Montevideo xG
50%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
3–09%
0–08%
From our goals model: Penarol 1.9 – 0.6 Liverpool Montevideo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Penarol to win✗
67%
1.49
1.65 ▲
Double chance
Penarol or draw✗
88%
1.14
1.10
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
50%
1.99
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Half-time result
Penarol ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penarol / FT Penarol✗
43%
2.35
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.57
–
Form
Penarol – last 6
DLWWWD
10 Apr
@ Santa Fe
1–1
D
29 Mar
vs Racing Montevideo
1–2
L
26 Mar
@ Boston River
2–0
W
21 Mar
vs Cerro
3–1
W
15 Mar
@ Albion FC
1–0
W
8 Mar
vs Danubio
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Liverpool Montevideo – last 6
DDDWWD
31 Mar
@ Progreso
3–3
D
24 Mar
vs Central Espanol
3–3
D
17 Mar
vs Atletico Torque
0–0
D
10 Mar
@ Boston River
1–0
W
1 Mar
vs Cerro Largo
2–0
W
25 Feb
@ Independiente Medellin
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Penarol and Liverpool Montevideo.
What is the prediction for Penarol vs Liverpool Montevideo?
Our pick is Penarol to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Penarol vs Liverpool Montevideo?
On our numbers Penarol have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Liverpool Montevideo 12%.
How many goals will there be in Penarol vs Liverpool Montevideo?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Penarol vs Liverpool Montevideo?
Our predicted score is Penarol 1–0 Liverpool Montevideo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Penarol vs Liverpool Montevideo?
Penarol vs Liverpool Montevideo (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Tuesday 14 April 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Campeón del Siglo.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
