Value bet: St. Truiden to win @ 2.15 – our chance 51% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultSt. Truiden to win51% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win80% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score59% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–110% · fair 9.80
KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden preview and prediction
The match
St. Truiden travel to Veoliastadion Achter De Kazerne in the Jupiler Pro League on Sunday 26 April (15:00 WAT) to face KV Mechelen. KV Mechelen are 11th with 12 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while St. Truiden sit 12th on 11 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
KV Mechelen's last 5: LLDWL Most recently they lost to Club Brugge KV 1–6 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded.
St. Truiden's last 5: WDLWW Most recently they beat Anderlecht 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded.
St. Truiden arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.1 for KV Mechelen and 1.6 for St. Truiden. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 59%.
Betting angles
Win chances: KV Mechelen 29%, draw 20%, St. Truiden 51%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.53.
Value angle: St. Truiden to win at 2.15 – 51% on our numbers against 47% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: KV Mechelen 1–1 St. Truiden. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
KV Mechelen29%fair 3.46 · @3.10
Draw20%fair 4.89 · @3.60
St. Truiden51%fair 1.97 · @2.15
2.77Expected goals
1.14KV Mechelen xG
1.63St. Truiden xG
59%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
0–28%
1–07%
2–17%
From our goals model: KV Mechelen 1.1 – 1.6 St. Truiden expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
St. Truiden to win
51%
1.97
2.15 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
80%
1.26
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
59%
1.70
1.53
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
77%
1.30
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
54%
1.84
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
67%
1.48
1.45
Half-time result
Level at half-time
41%
2.43
–
Half-time / full-time
HT St. Truiden / FT St. Truiden
29%
3.41
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1
10%
9.80
–
Form
KV Mechelen – last 6
LLDWLW
22 Apr
@ Club Brugge KV
1–6
L
12 Apr
vs Union St. Gilloise
0–1
L
6 Apr
@ Gent
1–1
D
15 Mar
vs Anderlecht
1–0
W
8 Mar
@ Gent
1–3
L
22 Feb
@ RAAL La Louvière
2–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
St. Truiden – last 6
WDLWWW
23 Apr
vs Anderlecht
2–0
W
19 Apr
@ Gent
0–0
D
15 Mar
@ Genk
0–1
L
8 Mar
vs Cercle Brugge
2–1
W
21 Feb
@ Dender
4–1
W
15 Feb
vs Zulte Waregem
3–2
W
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between KV Mechelen and St. Truiden.
What is the prediction for KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden?
On our numbers KV Mechelen have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 20% and St. Truiden 51%.
How many goals will there be in KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden?
Our predicted score is KV Mechelen 1–1 St. Truiden, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden?
KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden (Jupiler Pro League) kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Veoliastadion Achter De Kazerne.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
