Value bet: Cherepovets to win @ 2.95 – our chance 36% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultZvezda St. Petersburg to win ✓38% · @2.38
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.34
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗62% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.74
Zvezda St. Petersburg vs Cherepovets preview and prediction
The match
The Second League Group 2 sees Zvezda St. Petersburg take on Cherepovets on Friday 16 October, kicking off at 12:00 (WAT) at Stadion Nova Arena. Zvezda St. Petersburg are 10th with 24 points from 20 games (in the bottom half), while Cherepovets sit 9th on 24 points (in the bottom half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Zvezda St. Petersburg's last 5: WLLLL Most recently they beat Spartak Moscow 2 3–2 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 4 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 3.3 conceded.
Cherepovets's last 5: LLWWL Most recently they lost to Torpedo Vladimir 0–1 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Cherepovets arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 28 June 2026, finished Cherepovets 0–2 Zvezda St. Petersburg.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.5 for Zvezda St. Petersburg and 1.4 for Cherepovets. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 62%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Zvezda St. Petersburg 38%, draw 25%, Cherepovets 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Cherepovets to win at 2.95 – 36% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.23. Predicted score: Zvezda St. Petersburg 1–1 Cherepovets. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Zvezda St. Petersburg38%fair 2.60 · @2.38
Draw25%fair 3.94 · @3.00
Cherepovets36%fair 2.76 · @2.95
2.86Expected goals
1.46Zvezda St. Petersburg xG
1.41Cherepovets xG
62%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
2–19%
1–08%
1–28%
0–18%
2–06%
From our goals model: Zvezda St. Petersburg 1.5 – 1.4 Cherepovets expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Zvezda St. Petersburg to win✓
38%
2.60
2.38
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.34
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
62%
1.62
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.31
1.23
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.89
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.35
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.45
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Zvezda St. Petersburg / FT Zvezda St. Petersburg✓
What is the prediction for Zvezda St. Petersburg vs Cherepovets?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.23.
Who will win Zvezda St. Petersburg vs Cherepovets?
On our numbers Zvezda St. Petersburg have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Cherepovets 36%.
How many goals will there be in Zvezda St. Petersburg vs Cherepovets?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Zvezda St. Petersburg vs Cherepovets?
Our predicted score is Zvezda St. Petersburg 1–1 Cherepovets, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Zvezda St. Petersburg vs Cherepovets?
Zvezda St. Petersburg vs Cherepovets (Second League Group 2) kicks off on Friday 16 October 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Nova Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
