Value bet: Under 3.5 goals @ 2.08 – our chance 51% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultChertanovo Moscow to win ✓67% · @1.31
Double chanceChertanovo Moscow or draw ✓88% · @1.04
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.51
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–2 ✗10% · fair 9.72
Iskra Smolensk vs Chertanovo Moscow preview and prediction
The match
Chertanovo Moscow travel to face Iskra Smolensk in the Second League Group 2 on Saturday 15 August (12:00 WAT). Iskra Smolensk are 14th with 15 points from 21 games (in the bottom three), while Chertanovo Moscow sit 5th on 39 points (in the top half). A gap of 24 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Iskra Smolensk's last 5: LLDLL Most recently they lost to Kaluga 0–5 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Chertanovo Moscow's last 5: WLLDD Most recently they beat Chita 3–0 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Chertanovo Moscow arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 0.9 for Iskra Smolensk and 2.4 for Chertanovo Moscow. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score in 60% of our simulations.
Value angle: Under 3.5 goals at 2.08 – 51% on our numbers against 48% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 68% chance at odds of 1.26. Predicted score: Iskra Smolensk 1–2 Chertanovo Moscow. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Iskra Smolensk12%fair 8.26 · @8.60
Draw20%fair 4.90 · @4.70
Chertanovo Moscow67%fair 1.48 · @1.31
3.29Expected goals
0.94Iskra Smolensk xG
2.35Chertanovo Moscow xG
60%Both score
68%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–210%
1–210%
0–19%
1–18%
0–38%
1–38%
From our goals model: Iskra Smolensk 0.9 – 2.4 Chertanovo Moscow expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Chertanovo Moscow to win✓
67%
1.48
1.31
Double chance
Chertanovo Moscow or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.04
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.67
1.51
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
1.26
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
51%
1.95
2.08 ▲
Half-time result
Chertanovo Moscow ahead at half-time✓
51%
1.97
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Chertanovo Moscow / FT Chertanovo Moscow✓
46%
2.19
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2✗
10%
9.72
–
Form
Iskra Smolensk – last 6
LLDLLL
12 Aug
@ Kaluga
0–5
L
8 Aug
@ Kosmos Dolgoprudny
0–1
L
1 Aug
vs Dinamo St. Petersburg
1–1
D
26 Jul
@ Cherepovets
1–2
L
4 Jul
vs Tver
2–4
L
21 Jun
@ Murom
0–6
L
0.7Scored / game
3.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Chertanovo Moscow – last 6
WLLDDD
12 Aug
vs Chita
3–0
W
9 Aug
vs Murom
1–2
L
2 Aug
@ Luki-Energiya
2–3
L
26 Jul
vs Zvezda St. Petersburg
1–1
D
5 Jul
@ Irkutsk
1–1
D
28 Jun
vs Dinamo Vologda
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Iskra Smolensk and Chertanovo Moscow.
What is the prediction for Iskra Smolensk vs Chertanovo Moscow?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.26.
Who will win Iskra Smolensk vs Chertanovo Moscow?
On our numbers Iskra Smolensk have a 12% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Chertanovo Moscow 67%.
How many goals will there be in Iskra Smolensk vs Chertanovo Moscow?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Iskra Smolensk vs Chertanovo Moscow?
Our predicted score is Iskra Smolensk 1–2 Chertanovo Moscow, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Iskra Smolensk vs Chertanovo Moscow?
Iskra Smolensk vs Chertanovo Moscow (Second League Group 2) kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
