New Mexico United vs El Paso Locomotive prediction & analysis
58%
Footrivo pick
Over 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.72 · bookmaker 1.65 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.65Odds
2
Value bet: El Paso Locomotive to win @ 2.90 – our chance 37% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultNew Mexico United to win ✗40% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · fair 1.78
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.75
New Mexico United vs El Paso Locomotive preview and prediction
The match
El Paso Locomotive travel to Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park in the US Open Cup on Thursday 2 April (02:30 WAT) to face New Mexico United.
Form guide
New Mexico United's last 3: LWL Most recently they lost to San Antonio 0–1 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.7 conceded.
El Paso Locomotive's last 4: WWWD Most recently they beat Sacramento Republic 2–1 away. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
El Paso Locomotive arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 1.6 for New Mexico United and 1.6 for El Paso Locomotive. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 56% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: New Mexico United 40%, draw 23%, El Paso Locomotive 37%.
Value angle: El Paso Locomotive to win at 2.90 – 37% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 58% chance at odds of 1.65. Predicted score: New Mexico United 2–1 El Paso Locomotive. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
New Mexico United40%fair 2.50 · @2.10
Draw23%fair 4.41 · @3.35
El Paso Locomotive37%fair 2.68 · @2.90
3.19Expected goals
1.62New Mexico United xG
1.56El Paso Locomotive xG
56%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
2–19%
1–28%
1–07%
2–27%
0–16%
From our goals model: New Mexico United 1.6 – 1.6 El Paso Locomotive expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
New Mexico United to win✗
40%
2.50
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.29
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.78
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
61%
1.65
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
38%
2.61
–
Half-time / full-time
HT New Mexico United / FT New Mexico United✗
24%
4.25
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.75
–
Form
New Mexico United – last 3
LWL
22 Mar
@ San Antonio
0–1
L
19 Mar
vs Cruizers
3–2
W
15 Mar
@ Oakland Roots
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
El Paso Locomotive – last 4
WWWD
29 Mar
@ Sacramento Republic
2–1
W
20 Mar
@ Laredo Heat
2–0
W
15 Mar
@ Monterey Bay
3–0
W
8 Mar
vs Colorado Springs
2–2
D
2.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between New Mexico United and El Paso Locomotive.
What is the prediction for New Mexico United vs El Paso Locomotive?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win New Mexico United vs El Paso Locomotive?
On our numbers New Mexico United have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 23% and El Paso Locomotive 37%.
How many goals will there be in New Mexico United vs El Paso Locomotive?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for New Mexico United vs El Paso Locomotive?
Our predicted score is New Mexico United 2–1 El Paso Locomotive, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is New Mexico United vs El Paso Locomotive?
New Mexico United vs El Paso Locomotive (US Open Cup) kicks off on Thursday 2 April 2026 at 02:30 (West Africa Time) at Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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