Value bet: Sevastopol to win @ 1.82 – our chance 59% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSevastopol to win ✗59% · @1.82
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.21
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.16
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.38
Spartak Nalchik vs Sevastopol preview and prediction
The match
Sevastopol travel to face Spartak Nalchik in the Second League Group 1 on Saturday 4 July (15:00 WAT). Spartak Nalchik are 8th with 28 points from 20 games (in the top half), while Sevastopol sit 1st on 50 points (top of the table). A gap of 22 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Spartak Nalchik's last 5: WDLDL Most recently they beat Lugansk 3–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Sevastopol's last 5: WWWWD Most recently they beat Angust Nazran 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.3 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Sevastopol arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 0.8 for Spartak Nalchik and 1.7 for Sevastopol. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 57%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Sevastopol to win at 1.82 – 59% on our numbers against 55% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 70% chance at odds of 1.39. Predicted score: Spartak Nalchik 0–1 Sevastopol. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Spartak Nalchik21%fair 4.84 · @3.60
Draw20%fair 4.93 · @3.50
Sevastopol59%fair 1.69 · @1.82
2.51Expected goals
0.84Spartak Nalchik xG
1.67Sevastopol xG
57%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
1–111%
0–211%
1–210%
0–08%
1–07%
From our goals model: Spartak Nalchik 0.8 – 1.7 Sevastopol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sevastopol to win✗
59%
1.69
1.82 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.25
1.21
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.74
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.16
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
70%
1.42
1.39
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sevastopol / FT Sevastopol✗
35%
2.85
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
7.38
–
Form
Spartak Nalchik – last 6
WDLDLW
20 Jun
vs Lugansk
3–0
W
13 Jun
@ Rostov II
1–1
D
6 Jun
vs Kyzyltash
0–1
L
30 May
@ Rubin Yalta
1–1
D
23 May
@ Nart Cherkessk
0–1
L
8 May
vs Druzhba
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Sevastopol – last 6
WWWWDW
27 Jun
vs Angust Nazran
1–0
W
20 Jun
@ Astrakhan
2–1
W
13 Jun
vs Pobeda
2–1
W
6 Jun
@ Nart Cherkessk
1–0
W
30 May
vs Druzhba
0–0
D
23 May
@ Kyzyltash
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Spartak Nalchik and Sevastopol.
What is the prediction for Spartak Nalchik vs Sevastopol?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.39.
Who will win Spartak Nalchik vs Sevastopol?
On our numbers Spartak Nalchik have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Sevastopol 59%.
How many goals will there be in Spartak Nalchik vs Sevastopol?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Spartak Nalchik vs Sevastopol?
Our predicted score is Spartak Nalchik 0–1 Sevastopol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Spartak Nalchik vs Sevastopol?
Spartak Nalchik vs Sevastopol (Second League Group 1) kicks off on Saturday 4 July 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
