Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.35 – our chance 51% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultRosario Central to win ✓65% · @1.28
Double chanceRosario Central or draw ✓87% · @1.04
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.35
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓15% · fair 6.85
Rosario Central vs Libertad Asuncion preview and prediction
The match
Rosario Central host Libertad Asuncion in the CONMEBOL Libertadores on Tuesday 5 May, with kick-off at 23:00 (WAT) at Gigante de Arroyito. Rosario Central are 2nd with 13 points from 6 games, while Libertad Asuncion sit 4th on 0 points. A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Rosario Central's last 5: WWWWD Most recently they beat UCV 3–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Libertad Asuncion's last 5: WLWLL Most recently they beat Club Sp. San Lorenzo 5–0 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Rosario Central arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 15 April 2026, finished Libertad Asuncion 0–1 Rosario Central.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.7 for Rosario Central and 0.7 for Libertad Asuncion. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 51%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Rosario Central 65%, draw 22%, Libertad Asuncion 13%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.35.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.35 – 51% on our numbers against 43% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: Rosario Central 1–0 Libertad Asuncion. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Rosario Central65%fair 1.53 · @1.28
Draw22%fair 4.60 · @5.00
Libertad Asuncion13%fair 7.63 · @11.00
2.48Expected goals
1.74Rosario Central xG
0.74Libertad Asuncion xG
51%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Rosario Central 1.7 – 0.7 Libertad Asuncion expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Rosario Central vs Libertad Asuncion?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Rosario Central vs Libertad Asuncion?
On our numbers Rosario Central have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Libertad Asuncion 13%.
How many goals will there be in Rosario Central vs Libertad Asuncion?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Rosario Central vs Libertad Asuncion?
Our predicted score is Rosario Central 1–0 Libertad Asuncion, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Rosario Central vs Libertad Asuncion?
Rosario Central vs Libertad Asuncion (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Tuesday 5 May 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Gigante de Arroyito.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Sporting Cristal0
Palmeiras2