Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Cerro Porteno to win @ 3.95 – our chance 38% vs 25% implied by the price (edge +49%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultJunior to win ✗38% · @1.96
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.10
Junior vs Cerro Porteno preview and prediction
The match
The CONMEBOL Libertadores sees Junior take on Cerro Porteno on Friday 8 May, kicking off at 03:00 (WAT) at Estadio Romelio Martinez. Junior are 4th with 4 points from 6 games, while Cerro Porteno sit 1st on 13 points.
Form guide
Junior's last 5: WLWLD Most recently they beat Deportivo Pasto 4–3 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Cerro Porteno's last 5: LDDWD Most recently they lost to Deportivo Recoleta 1–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 14 April 2026, finished Cerro Porteno 1–0 Junior.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 1.0 for Junior and 1.0 for Cerro Porteno. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Cerro Porteno to win at 3.95 – 38% on our numbers against 25% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 82% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Junior 0–0 Cerro Porteno. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Junior38%fair 2.62 · @1.96
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.25
Cerro Porteno38%fair 2.65 · @3.95
1.93Expected goals
0.97Junior xG
0.96Cerro Porteno xG
50%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–015%
1–014%
0–114%
1–114%
2–07%
0–27%
From our goals model: Junior 1.0 – 1.0 Cerro Porteno expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Junior vs Cerro Porteno?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Junior vs Cerro Porteno?
On our numbers Junior have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Cerro Porteno 38%.
How many goals will there be in Junior vs Cerro Porteno?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Junior vs Cerro Porteno?
Our predicted score is Junior 0–0 Cerro Porteno, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Junior vs Cerro Porteno?
Junior vs Cerro Porteno (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Friday 8 May 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Romelio Martinez.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Coquimbo Unido2
Universitario1
Independiente Medellin0
Flamengo0