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CONMEBOL Libertadores · South America · Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Independiente Medellin

WWWLL
0–0
–

Flamengo

DWWWW

Independiente Medellin vs Flamengo prediction & analysis

77%
Footrivo pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.30 · bookmaker 1.22

8/10Rating
1.22Odds
2

Value bet: Flamengo to win @ 1.75 – our chance 65% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk.

Quick tips for this match

ResultFlamengo to win65% · @1.75
Double chanceFlamengo or draw87% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score52% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–116% · fair 6.43

Independiente Medellin vs Flamengo preview and prediction

The match

Independiente Medellin host Flamengo in the CONMEBOL Libertadores on Friday 8 May, with kick-off at 01:30 (WAT) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot. Independiente Medellin are 3rd with 7 points from 6 games, while Flamengo sit 1st on 16 points.

Form guide

Independiente Medellin's last 5: WWWLL Most recently they beat Cusco 1–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 5. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.

Flamengo's last 5: DWWWW Most recently they drew with Estudiantes L.P. 1–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded.

Head to head

The last meeting, on 17 April 2026, finished Flamengo 4–1 Independiente Medellin.

Goals outlook

Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 0.6 for Independiente Medellin and 1.8 for Flamengo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 52%.

Betting angles

Our prediction

Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Independiente Medellin 0–1 Flamengo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.

Win chances

Independiente Medellin13%fair 7.79 · @4.90
Draw22%fair 4.50 · @3.40
Flamengo65%fair 1.54 · @1.75
2.45Expected goals
0.65Independiente Medellin xG
1.80Flamengo xG
52%Both score
44%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

0–116%
0–214%
1–110%
1–29%
0–09%
0–38%

From our goals model: Independiente Medellin 0.6 – 1.8 Flamengo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultFlamengo to win65%1.541.75 ▲
Double chanceFlamengo or draw87%1.151.17
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score52%1.922.05 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals69%1.461.40
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals56%1.771.65
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals77%1.301.22
Half-time resultFlamengo ahead at half-time45%2.21–
Half-time / full-timeHT Flamengo / FT Flamengo41%2.44–
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–116%6.43–

Form

Independiente Medellin – last 6

WWWLLD
1 Mayvs Cusco1–0W
26 Aprvs Fortaleza FC1–0W
23 Aprvs Chico2–0W
17 Apr@ Flamengo1–4L
12 Aprvs Atletico Nacional2–3L
9 Aprvs Estudiantes L.P.1–1D
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Flamengo – last 6

DWWWWL
30 Apr@ Estudiantes L.P.1–1D
23 Aprvs Vitoria2–1W
19 Aprvs Bahia2–0W
17 Aprvs Independiente Medellin4–1W
9 Apr@ Cusco2–0W
3 Apr@ RB Bragantino0–3L
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

17 Apr 2026Flamengo v Independiente Medellin4–1
Independiente Medellin vs Flamengo head-to-head page →

CONMEBOL Libertadores table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Flamengo6510+1216
2Estudiantes L.P.6231+19
3Independiente Medellin6213-57
4Cusco6015-81

More CONMEBOL Libertadores predictions

League hub
FT Coquimbo Unido2 Universitario1 148%2.12X23%3.05229%3.70 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 66%@1.48 ✓
FT Junior0 Cerro Porteno1 138%1.96X24%3.25238%3.95 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 82%@1.22 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Independiente Medellin vs Flamengo?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win Independiente Medellin vs Flamengo?

On our numbers Independiente Medellin have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Flamengo 65%.

How many goals will there be in Independiente Medellin vs Flamengo?

We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Independiente Medellin vs Flamengo?

Our predicted score is Independiente Medellin 0–1 Flamengo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.

When is Independiente Medellin vs Flamengo?

Independiente Medellin vs Flamengo (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Friday 8 May 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.