Libertad Asuncion vs Independiente del Valle prediction & analysis
79%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Independiente del Valle to win @ 2.66 – our chance 47% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +26%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultIndependiente del Valle to win ✓47% · @2.66
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗54% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.48
Libertad Asuncion vs Independiente del Valle preview and prediction
The match
Independiente del Valle travel to Estadio Tigo La Huerta in the CONMEBOL Libertadores on Tuesday 28 April (23:00 WAT) to face Libertad Asuncion. Libertad Asuncion are 4th with 0 points from 6 games, while Independiente del Valle sit 1st on 13 points. A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Libertad Asuncion's last 5: WLLDL Most recently they beat Olimpia 3–2 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Independiente del Valle's last 5: WWDLW Most recently they beat Delfin SC 1–0 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Independiente del Valle arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.0 for Libertad Asuncion and 1.3 for Independiente del Valle. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 46%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Libertad Asuncion 29%, draw 23%, Independiente del Valle 47%.
Both teams to score: no (54%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Independiente del Valle to win at 2.66 – 47% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Libertad Asuncion 0–1 Independiente del Valle. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Libertad Asuncion29%fair 3.43 · @2.72
Draw23%fair 4.27 · @3.05
Independiente del Valle47%fair 2.11 · @2.66
2.30Expected goals
0.97Libertad Asuncion xG
1.34Independiente del Valle xG
46%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–113%
1–113%
0–010%
1–010%
0–29%
1–29%
From our goals model: Libertad Asuncion 1.0 – 1.3 Independiente del Valle expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente del Valle to win✓
47%
2.11
2.66 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
54%
1.84
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.70
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
79%
1.27
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente del Valle / FT Independiente del Valle✗
26%
3.79
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.48
–
Form
Libertad Asuncion – last 6
WLLDLL
26 Apr
vs Olimpia
3–2
W
20 Apr
@ Rubio NU
0–3
L
15 Apr
vs Rosario Central
0–1
L
13 Apr
vs Sportivo Trinidense
1–1
D
9 Apr
@ UCV
1–3
L
6 Apr
@ Club Guarani
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Independiente del Valle – last 6
WWDLWW
22 Apr
@ Delfin SC
1–0
W
16 Apr
vs UCV
3–1
W
9 Apr
@ Rosario Central
0–0
D
20 Mar
@ Emelec
0–2
L
3 Mar
@ Manta FC
2–0
W
23 Feb
vs Guayaquil City FC
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Libertad Asuncion and Independiente del Valle.
What is the prediction for Libertad Asuncion vs Independiente del Valle?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Libertad Asuncion vs Independiente del Valle?
On our numbers Libertad Asuncion have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Independiente del Valle 47%.
How many goals will there be in Libertad Asuncion vs Independiente del Valle?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Libertad Asuncion vs Independiente del Valle?
Our predicted score is Libertad Asuncion 0–1 Independiente del Valle, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Libertad Asuncion vs Independiente del Valle?
Libertad Asuncion vs Independiente del Valle (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Tuesday 28 April 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Tigo La Huerta.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Lanus1
LDU de Quito0