Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
U2.5
Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.65 – our chance 65% vs 61% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLanus to win ✓61% · @1.69
Double chanceLanus or draw ✓86% · @1.15
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓54% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓22% · fair 4.54
Lanus vs LDU de Quito preview and prediction
The match
The CONMEBOL Libertadores sees Lanus take on LDU de Quito on Tuesday 28 April, kicking off at 23:00 (WAT) at Estadio Ciudad de Lanus. Lanus are 3rd with 9 points from 6 games, while LDU de Quito sit 1st on 12 points. Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Lanus's last 5: DLWWL Most recently they drew with Central Cordoba de Santiago 0–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
LDU de Quito's last 5: LDWLW Most recently they lost to Emelec 0–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 1.4 for Lanus and 0.5 for LDU de Quito. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lanus 61%, draw 26%, LDU de Quito 14%.
Safer route: Lanus or draw (86%) at 1.15.
Both teams to score: no (54%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Under 2.5 goals at 1.65 – 65% on our numbers against 61% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 83% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Lanus 1–0 LDU de Quito. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lanus61%fair 1.65 · @1.69
Draw26%fair 3.88 · @3.45
LDU de Quito14%fair 7.40 · @5.30
1.82Expected goals
1.36Lanus xG
0.46LDU de Quito xG
46%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–022%
0–016%
2–015%
1–110%
0–17%
2–17%
From our goals model: Lanus 1.4 – 0.5 LDU de Quito expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lanus to win✓
61%
1.65
1.69
Double chance
Lanus or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.15
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
61%
1.64
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.65 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
1.98
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lanus / FT Lanus✗
35%
2.82
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
22%
4.54
–
Form
Lanus – last 6
DLWWLD
24 Apr
vs Central Cordoba de Santiago
0–0
D
21 Apr
@ Gimnasia M.
0–1
L
16 Apr
vs Always Ready
1–0
W
13 Apr
vs Banfield
1–0
W
8 Apr
@ Mirassol
0–1
L
2 Apr
vs Platense
0–0
D
0.3Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
LDU de Quito – last 6
LDWLWL
25 Apr
@ Emelec
0–1
L
23 Apr
vs Aucas
0–0
D
15 Apr
vs Mirassol
2–0
W
11 Apr
@ Delfin SC
0–1
L
8 Apr
@ Always Ready
1–0
W
4 Apr
vs Barcelona SC
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lanus and LDU de Quito.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Lanus vs LDU de Quito?
On our numbers Lanus have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 26% and LDU de Quito 14%.
How many goals will there be in Lanus vs LDU de Quito?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lanus vs LDU de Quito?
Our predicted score is Lanus 1–0 LDU de Quito, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Lanus vs LDU de Quito?
Lanus vs LDU de Quito (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Tuesday 28 April 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Ciudad de Lanus.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Libertad Asuncion2
Independiente del Valle3