Good pick · fair odds 1.59 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.53Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultCorinthians to win ✓60% · @1.57
Double chanceCorinthians or draw ✓84% · @1.10
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓55% · @1.45
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.79
Corinthians vs Penarol preview and prediction
The match
Corinthians host Penarol in the CONMEBOL Libertadores on Friday 1 May, with kick-off at 01:00 (WAT) at Neo Quimica Arena. Corinthians are 1st with 11 points from 6 games, while Penarol sit 4th on 3 points.
Form guide
Corinthians's last 5: WDWWL Most recently they beat Barra 1–0 away. They average 1.0 scored and 0.7 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Penarol's last 5: DLLDL Most recently they drew with Juventud 2–2 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Corinthians arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.6 for Corinthians and 0.6 for Penarol. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely.
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 63% chance at odds of 1.53. Predicted score: Corinthians 2–0 Penarol. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Corinthians60%fair 1.65 · @1.57
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @3.45
Penarol16%fair 6.16 · @7.00
2.20Expected goals
1.56Corinthians xG
0.64Penarol xG
45%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–013%
0–011%
1–111%
2–19%
0–17%
From our goals model: Corinthians 1.6 – 0.6 Penarol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Corinthians to win✓
60%
1.65
1.57
Double chance
Corinthians or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.10
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
55%
1.81
1.45
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
1.53
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
1.48
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.15
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Corinthians / FT Corinthians✓
36%
2.76
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.79
–
Form
Corinthians – last 6
WDWWLL
22 Apr
@ Barra
1–0
W
19 Apr
@ Vitoria
0–0
D
16 Apr
vs Santa Fe
2–0
W
10 Apr
@ Platense
2–0
W
5 Apr
vs Internacional
0–1
L
2 Apr
@ Fluminense
1–3
L
1.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Penarol – last 6
DLLDLW
21 Apr
vs Juventud
2–2
D
17 Apr
vs Platense
1–2
L
14 Apr
vs Liverpool Montevideo
0–2
L
10 Apr
@ Santa Fe
1–1
D
29 Mar
vs Racing Montevideo
1–2
L
26 Mar
@ Boston River
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Corinthians and Penarol.
What is the prediction for Corinthians vs Penarol?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Corinthians vs Penarol?
On our numbers Corinthians have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Penarol 16%.
How many goals will there be in Corinthians vs Penarol?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Corinthians vs Penarol?
Our predicted score is Corinthians 2–0 Penarol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Corinthians vs Penarol?
Corinthians vs Penarol (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Friday 1 May 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Neo Quimica Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Independiente Medellin1
Cusco0