Good pick · fair odds 1.59 · bookmaker 1.95 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.95Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultPenarol to win ✗63% · @1.95
Double chancePenarol or draw ✗89% · @1.18
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗54% · @1.50
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗68% · @1.38
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗21% · fair 4.83
Penarol vs Platense preview and prediction
The match
Penarol host Platense in the CONMEBOL Libertadores on Friday 17 April, with kick-off at 01:30 (WAT) at Estadio Campeón del Siglo. Penarol are 4th with 3 points from 6 games, while Platense sit 2nd on 10 points.
Form guide
Penarol's last 5: LDLWW Most recently they lost to Liverpool Montevideo 0–2 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Platense's last 5: LDDDD Most recently they lost to Corinthians 0–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 0 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.2 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Penarol arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.5 for Penarol and 0.5 for Platense. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Penarol 63%, draw 26%, Platense 11%.
Safer route: Penarol or draw (89%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: no (54%) at 1.50.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Penarol to win – a 63% chance at odds of 1.95, above our fair price of 1.59, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Penarol 1–0 Platense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Penarol63%fair 1.59 · @1.95
Draw26%fair 3.89 · @2.95
Platense11%fair 8.74 · @4.60
1.98Expected goals
1.51Penarol xG
0.48Platense xG
46%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–021%
2–016%
0–014%
1–110%
3–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Penarol 1.5 – 0.5 Platense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Penarol to win✗
63%
1.59
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Penarol or draw✗
89%
1.13
1.18
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
54%
1.86
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
1.65
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
68%
1.46
1.38
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
85%
1.17
1.11
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.09
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penarol / FT Penarol✗
38%
2.61
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
21%
4.83
–
Form
Penarol – last 6
LDLWWW
14 Apr
vs Liverpool Montevideo
0–2
L
10 Apr
@ Santa Fe
1–1
D
29 Mar
vs Racing Montevideo
1–2
L
26 Mar
@ Boston River
2–0
W
21 Mar
vs Cerro
3–1
W
15 Mar
@ Albion FC
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Platense – last 6
LDDDDD
10 Apr
vs Corinthians
0–2
L
2 Apr
@ Lanus
0–0
D
11 Mar
@ Newells Old Boys
1–1
D
2 Mar
@ Deportivo Riestra
0–0
D
24 Feb
vs Defensa Y Justicia
0–0
D
15 Feb
@ Boca Juniors
0–0
D
0.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Penarol and Platense.
Our pick is Penarol to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Penarol vs Platense?
On our numbers Penarol have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Platense 11%.
How many goals will there be in Penarol vs Platense?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Penarol vs Platense?
Our predicted score is Penarol 1–0 Platense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Penarol vs Platense?
Penarol vs Platense (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Friday 17 April 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Campeón del Siglo.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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